Market News

Soybeans, corn hold onto crude oil related gains, wheat closes mixed

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Beans saw another round of spillover from crude oil, which was up on supply worries, and crude oil, where gains were tied to biodiesel demand expectations and the general tone in energies. Overbought indicators did inhibit gains in beans and bean oil at least slightly. Brazil’s harvest is past the halfway point, with CONAB’s update out Friday. There is some talk a major soybean exporter in Brazil is pausing shipments because of new inspection regulations, which could help U.S sales. Soybean export sales were up on the week at 16.8 million bushels, primarily to Indonesia and Mexico, with a routine amount to China. An additional 300,000 bushels for 2026/27 delivery were sold to Japan. Soybean meal futures followed beans and bean oil higher. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are expected to meet this weekend ahead of the face-to-face meeting between President Trump and President Xi at the end of the month.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn followed the lead of crude oil, while monitoring South America and waiting for CONAB. Crude had more support from supply concerns linked to the ongoing military action in Iran and the Middle East. The Rosario Grain Exchange pegs Argentina’s crop at 62 million tons, above most other guesses, including the USDA. Stateside, the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks numbers are out on the 31^st. Almost half of the U.S. Corn Belt is in some stage of drought and there are input concerns ahead of widespread spring planting. U.S. export sales last week were below average at a still solid 60.3 million bushels. Japan and Mexico led the way, with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. Another 500 tons for 2026/27 delivery were sold to Japan. The Renewable Fuels Association says January 2026 ethanol exports were 212.1 million gallons, 4% lower than December 2025, which was the second largest for any month on record. Exports of distillers dried grains with solubles were a three-month high at 1.01 million tons.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago firm, Kansas City nearly unchanged, and Minneapolis weak. 55% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, down 1%. There could be further improvements in next week’s U.S. Drought Monitor update, with most of that expected to be in soft red winter growing areas of the eastern Midwest. Winter wheat is very close to emerging in much of the Northern Hemisphere, with some eyes falling on potential issues in parts of Europe and the Black Sea region. Ongoing military action in the Middle East could lead to some trade disruption, as could escalations in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Weekly U.S. wheat sales of 16.7 million bushels were mainly to Mexico, with China taking the second place slot. Any other session, that would have probably provided more support. 1.5 million bushels of U.S. wheat were sold for 2026/27 delivery, most of that to Honduras and Colombia. The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service office in Egypt estimates 2026/27 wheat imports at 12.5 million tons, compared to 12.7 million in 2025/26, at least partially because of increased domestic production. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out April 9^th.