Market News

Soybeans, corn ignore WASDE, focus on weather

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The USDA’s old and new crop U.S. ending stocks numbers were unchanged, at 340 million and 310 million bushels, respectively, and U.S. development weather mostly looks favorable. For 2025/26, the USDA cut exports, but raised domestic crush an equal amount, with no adjustments, yet, for 2026/27. USDA did raise old crop production and exports for Argentina slightly, with only minor adjustments overall for 2026/27, globally. CONAB now has Brazil’s crop at 180.253 million tons, up 0.1% from May and 5.1% from 2025. The USDA’s updated supply and demand numbers are out July 10^th, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil set for July 14^th. Old crop export sales of 7.8 million bushels, 18% below average, with new crop at 5.2 million bushels. The leading old crop buyers were Egypt and Japan, with new crop led by unknown destinations. China continues to, at least officially, stay away from U.S. beans. Soybean meal futures were mixed, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was lower, with spillover pressure from crude oil.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. New crop corn ending stocks were up slightly, at 1.96 billion bushels, on larger old crop imports, with traders also watching development weather for corn, which looks favorable in many areas. That slight bump in old crop imports now has 2025/26 ending stocks, or 2026/27 beginning stocks, at 2.145 billion bushels. Any major 2026/27 will likely wait until after the USDA’s planted acreage numbers at the end of the month. 2025/26 production guesses for Argentina and Brazil were both higher, with USDA also increasing exports for Russia. CONAB now has Brazil’s combined corn crop at 140.463 million tons, 0.2% above last month, but 0.5% below last year, including 29.338 million tons of first crop, 107.865 million for second crop, and 3.26 million tons of third crop. The first crop harvest is nearly over, the second crop harvest is just getting underway, and third crop planted is wrapped in many areas. Old crop corn exports of 39.4 million bushels were up on the week, but down from the four-week average, mainly to Japan and Mexico, with new crop at 36.5 million bushels, primarily to Japan and Colombia.

The wheat complex was mixed. The USDA did lower the U.S. winter wheat yield estimate slightly, reducing an already multi-decade low 2026 production number even further, now at 1.03 billion bushels, down 2% from May and 27% from 2025. The average yield is pegged at 46.8 bushels per acre, dipping 0.8 on the month and 8.1 on the year. New crop U.S. wheat ending stocks were down 18 million bushels from May at 744 million bushels on that cut to production. 2026/27 global production was a little larger than last month, with increased crop estimates for Russia and Ukraine, against a cut for Australia. USDA also raised exports for Ukraine, while reducing the guess for Australia. Weekly U.S. export sales of 24.5 million bushels were topped by Mexico and Taiwan.