Market News

Soybeans, corn lower despite crop rating losses

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA’s national good to excellent rating was only down 1% on the week, even after the record high temperatures in some areas last week. Most forecasts have continued dry weather into mid-month for the Midwest, with hotter temperatures starting this weekend. The USDA’s updated yield outlook is out September 12^th. Soybean meal was lower on profit taking, while bean oil was mixed on bear spreading. Unknown destinations bought 246,100 tons of 2023/24 U.S. soybeans and 105,000 tons of 2023/24 U.S. soybean meal. The new marketing year starts September 1^st for soybeans and October 1^st for soybean meal. The soybean sale could turn out to be China when it’s time for delivery. The trade is also monitoring conditions ahead of widespread new crop planting in Argentina and Brazil.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA’s good to excellent rating was down 2%, not the drop analysts had been expecting after last week’s weather. That’s either indicative of the resilience of the crop or it will be a delayed reaction and show up in next week’s numbers. Crops generally look better east of the Mississippi River than west. Corn continues to face slow export demand, largely due to competition from Brazil, while corn for ethanol use demand is solid. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks report is out Wednesday. Barge prices are up because of low Mississippi River levels. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is out September 6^th.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The main negative continues to be the slow export demand for U.S. wheat. Russia holds a significant share of the global market, with private offers reportedly below Moscow’s official floor, while there have been some positive signs for Ukrainian shipping despite the ongoing war. U.S. ending stocks are projected at multi-year lows, while exports could be the lowest in several decade. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is officially over, while the spring wheat harvest is slow with conditions well below a year ago. Near-term conditions for the Northern U.S. Plains are generally dry, which should help the spring wheat harvest accelerate. Weather concerns for Argentina and Australia are on the back burner, along with possible quality issues in the European Union following excessively wet conditions late in the season. Additionally, monsoon activity in India has been at its lowest levels in years.