Market News

Soybeans, corn mixed Monday, watching weather in South America

Soybeans were mixed. The trade’s monitoring harvest in Brazil, now around 30% complete, and development weather in Argentina. Argentina’s crop rating has slid quite a bit this year but did improve a little after recent rainfall and is above a year ago. The trade’s also waiting to see what happens with tariffs and demand from China. President Trump responded to the Supreme Court’s ruling Friday by almost immediately declaring intentions to institute a 10% global tariff, pushing that to 15% over the weekend. U.S. export inspections drifted below last week and last year, but a significant amount of the weekly total was headed to China, followed by Mexico. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on product spread trade guided by demand expectations.

Corn was mixed. Argentina’s corn rating improved thanks to recent rain and second crop planting in Brazil is just past the halfway point, including 66% planted in the key state of Mato Grosso. Colombia bought 125,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn ahead of the open. It was one of the largest weeks for corn export inspections on record, with Japan, South Korea, and Mexico all taking in a substantial portion of the week’s total. Argentina is expected to become a bigger player on the export market shortly, which will likely cut into the U.S. market share. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the marketing year began are 10.72 million tons, compared to 13.95 million a year ago. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out March 10^th.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Wheat’s monitoring drought in the U.S. and excessive rain in portions of Europe, both of which could potentially damage crops. France’s AgriMer says 88% of the soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, a dip of 3% on the week. The trade is also watching conditions in the Black Sea region and waiting to see if recent negotiations aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine had any impact on Moscow’s aggression. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports since the start of the marketing year are 8.85 million tons, compared to 11.71 million this time last year. U.S. wheat is high-priced relative to other key exporters, but demand from traditional customers is holding up well. Export inspections were above the prior week and a year ago, with the Philippines and Nigeria leading the way.