Market News

Soybeans, corn pulled lower by crude oil, planting

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Soybeans followed bean and crude oils, while watching U.S. planting and the situation in Iran. Traders are also waiting for next week’s high-level meeting between the U.S. and China. Assuming ag trade, and soybeans, are a part of the discussion, the big unknown is if China will buy old crop U.S. soybeans or focus on new crop. China seems to be pretty well supplied by Brazil’s record crop, it is getting late in the 2025/26 U.S. marketing year, and new crop pricing might be more favorable for Beijing. China also has a trade relationship with Iran and crude oil prices could remain volatile, depending on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Stateside, planting conditions mostly look favorable, but some areas are seeing more precipitation and cooler temperatures. Additionally, soybeans are monitoring the harvest in Argentina. Soybean meal futures were lower on the broad bearishness in the soy complex. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday morning.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn saw spillover from crude oil, while watching the U.S. planting pace, which, as of Sunday, is ahead of average. More rain delays are likely in some areas, and cooler temperatures could impact early emergence in portions of the Corn Belt. Corn is also watching the harvest in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 12^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for May 14^th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.017 million barrels per day, up 8,000 on the week, but down 3,000 on the year, with stocks of 26.02 million barrels, an increase of 139,000 from the week before and 829,000 from a year ago, while exports averaged 139,000 barrels per day, 31,000 less than the prior week, but 10,000 more than last year.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Wheat is monitoring temperatures and near-term precipitation chances in the U.S. Plains. That does include snow in some U.S. hard red winter and spring wheat growing areas. A crop tour in Oklahoma is projecting a significant year-to-year drop in that state’s production due to drought, with more private state surveys upcoming closer to harvest. Soft red winter wheat continues to be in comparatively good shape. The USDA will have a winter wheat production update next week. Even if the USDA will likely trim their guess, wheat futures remain a global game and world supplies are ample. Rain is in the forecast for parts of Europe, with the trade also watching development weather in Russia and Ukraine, along with planting conditions in Argentina, Australia, and Canada.