Market News

Soybeans, corn see another round of losses

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Brazil’s soybean harvest has passed 60% complete and early activity is ongoing in Argentina. Domestic demand is solid, but export demand, especially demand from China, is limited by trade tensions and Brazil’s price advantage. ANEC projects Brazil’s March soybean exports at 15.45 million tons, up 4% from last week’s guess. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers and CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil are both out Thursday. Soybean meal and oil were lower on the decline in beans and the fundamental implications of a big combined South American crop. Statistics Canada estimates 2025 canola planted area at 21.646 million acres, 1.7% below a year ago, with the governmental body citing a lower return than other crops and soil moisture issues in parts of western Canada. That could fall even further because of China’s recent tariff actions on Canada. Soybean planted area is seen at 5.635 million acres, 1.3% lower. Soybeans fall under the new reciprocal European Union tariffs on U.S. goods.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is monitoring development weather in Argentina and the second crop planting pace in Brazil. Stateside, the trade is keeping an eye on conditions ahead of planting, with the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers out on the 31^st. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol stocks are holding close to the recent almost 5-year high at 27.376 million barrels, rising 87,000 on the week and 1.594 million on the year, with production averaging 1.062 million barrels a day, down 31,000 from the week before but up 38,000 from a year ago, and exports averaging 162,000 barrels per day, an increase of 39,000 from the prior week and 38,000 from last year. Tariff uncertainties with Mexico and Canada, and the European Union’s new reciprocal tariffs on the U.S., were a bearish background factor. Statistics Canada says farmers intend to plant 3.769 million acres of corn for grain in 2025, which would be 3.2% more than 2024.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis down and Kansas City up. Statistics Canada’s all wheat planted area estimate was larger than expected, at 27.475 million acres, with spring and winter wheat acres up 2.5% to 19.421 million acres and 15.1% at 1.687 million acres, respectively, for an overall increase of 2.6% from 2024. U.S. winter wheat conditions are mixed with the southern Plains expected to be mostly windy and dry into late March, with the trade keep an additional eye on weather in the northern U.S. Plains ahead of spring planting. The trade’s also monitoring conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region, while waiting to see if Russia can abide by the conditions of a U.S. brokered ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. Early indications that Moscow is willing to agree to the terms and suspend its aggression against Ukraine have not been entirely positive. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out April 10^th.