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Soybeans, corn see another round of weather pressure
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The trade is monitoring near-term weather, including seasonal temperatures and rain in some areas. Contracts did finish towards the middle of the day’s session, which might be a sign the downside objectives have been met. The USDA will update their U.S. production estimates on the 12th in the monthly supply and demand report. China’s SinoGrain reportedly sold 67% of the 501,000 tons of 2022 through 2025 on offer at auction this week, continuing to clear out space for recently purchased U.S. beans. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on the general bearishness in the soy complex. Another round of losses in crude oil was bearish for bean oil, beans, and corn.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching development weather, with generally favorable conditions in the forecast into at least next week. Even if most of the pollination phase happened during a mostly hot, dry July, this stretch of weather should support yield. Mexico bought 120,000 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open, with 30,000 tons for 2026/27 delivery and 90,000 tons for 2027/28. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.107 million barrels per day, down 26,000 on the week, but up 26,000 on the year, with stocks at 24.524 million barrels, 202,000 lower than the prior week, but 768,000 higher than a year ago, and exports averaging 200,000 barrels a day, an increase of 63,000 from the week before and 84,000 from last year. Corn is also watching Brazil’s second crop harvest, with CONAB’s next projection out August 13th.
The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were up, with Minneapolis mixed as traders keep an eye on Black Sea exports and U.S. harvest activity. For the Black Sea, there’s been no appreciable bump up in global demand for U.S. wheat even as movement slows due to war and there have been reports Russia and Ukraine are shipping some grain through other methods. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Stateside, Chicago and Kansas City are starting to see less pressure as the winter wheat harvest wraps up, while Minneapolis is monitoring early spring wheat yield results. Weather has been a big factor for U.S. wheat this year and could impact Argentina and Australia.
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