Market News

Soybeans, corn see further weather-related declines

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling, adding to what would have already been a down week. Development weather continues to look generally favorable in much of the region. There are certainly concerns about conditions and yield in some areas, but those are largely being balanced out by much better estimates and growing weather in other areas. The USDA is projecting record yield and production this year, with the USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers out September 12^th. The recent drop in price had led to at least some improvement in new crop export demand. Still, U.S. beans continue to contend with Brazil, especially when it comes to business with China. China reportedly bought U.S. and Brazilian soybeans late in the week. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling, ensuring a lower weekly finish. Corn is monitoring late development conditions, with the trade expecting a record yield and a large crop. Most of the crop is through the pollination phase and the USDA’s condition rating remains well above a week ago, with the next set of weekly crop progress and condition numbers out Monday at 4 Eastern/3 Central. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be solid. If there’s a disappointing aspect to export business, it’s the relatively slow demand from China. The U.S. was expected to take some of the market share from Ukraine due to lower production and uncertainties surrounding trade during the ongoing war with Russia, but Brazil has stepped into to fill a significant portion of that vacuum. Even then – the USDA’s projecting a big carryout in the 2024/25 marketing year, which is hanging over any of the demand positives.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with the lower dollar during the session. The main U.S. pits did close mixed on the week, with the most active Chicago and Kansas City months down and nearby Minneapolis up. Some near-term spring wheat harvest delays are probable in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. The USDA is projecting a record U.S. spring wheat yield, but that number could be trimmed if the rain is heavy and widespread and the department did recently lower the hard red spring production guess. New crop export demand is better than last marketing year and could improve further due to world weather issues. That includes France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. However, that’s been a little blunted by Russia continuing to also move old crop supplies at very low prices. It’s early in the season for Argentina’s winter wheat crop, but the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says dry weather is having a broad impact, and cool temperatures are also an issue in some areas, with just about a third of the crop in good to excellent condition. Conditions in Australia are mixed, but production is expected to be up on the year. France’s AgriMer says 98% of the soft wheat crop has been harvested.