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Soybeans, corn see harvest pressure

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. harvest weather looks generally favorable in much of the region into mid-month. There’s rain in the forecast for dry parts of Argentina and Brazil, recharging soil moisture and likely boosting planting. U.S. export sales were down on the week at a still solid 53 million bushels, about half of that to China, followed distantly by Bangladesh. There was also a small amount of soybeans sold to Japan for 2025/26 delivery. The trade is still at least somewhat disappointed there wasn’t more aggressive demand from China for U.S. soybeans ahead of the Golden Week holiday. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads. Bean meal had another round of pressure from the European Union deciding to delay cutting back on imports of ag products from deforested areas. Bean oil picked up additional support from the strength in crude oil tied to the tensions in the Middle East.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching U.S. harvest results and the planting conditions in South America. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 11th, with CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil on the 15th. Export sales were solid at 66.3 million bushels, but movement could be impacted by the ongoing U.S. port strike. Last week’s leading buyers were Mexico and Colombia, with a minor net cancelation by unknown destinations. The USDA’s attaché in China projects 2024/25 corn production at 293 million tons, 1 million more than the official guess, but 2 million less than the agency’s prior estimate due to flooding. Imports are seen at 20 million tons, compared to 24 million tons last marketing year.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Wheat saw a correction, while continuing to monitor U.S. and world weather issues. That includes dry conditions in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region during winter wheat planting, the excessively wet conditions in parts of the southeastern U.S., and a recent freeze in Australia that has likely trimmed production potential. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is also a factor. Indications are most, if not all, of Egypt’s big wheat buy will be sourced from Russia. U.S. sales last week were 16.3 million bushels, a big improvement from the previous week, primarily to Japan and Egypt. The USDA’s attaché for China sees 2024/25 wheat production at 140 million tons, compared to 136.59 million for 2023/24, with imports of 11 million tons, compared to 13.635 million the previous marketing year.

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