Market News

Soybeans, corn see late gains

Soybeans were higher thanks to late commercial and technical buying. Soybeans continue to monitor the early U.S. planting pace, the ongoing harvest in Argentina, and the late harvest in Brazil. The tariff standstill with China is a background issue. The lack of demand from China was evident in the weekly export numbers, with sales down sharply on the week and below average at 10.2 million bushels. Mexico and the Netherlands led the way. Routine sales to unknown destinations could turn out to be China when it’s time for delivery, but it’s unlikely, given not only the tariffs, but also Beijing’s recent reliance on Brazil for their soybean needs. ANEC sees Brazil’s soybean exports for April at 14.3 million tons, 200,000 less than last week’s guess. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on product spread adjustments linked to supply.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying after spending much of the date mixed. Near-term forecasts have rain in parts of the Corn Belt over the next few days ahead of a turn to warmer, drier conditions in some areas. Some delays are probable over the next few days, but on balance, unless there’s significant damage, this late April rain event will be viewed as a positive for long-term development. Corn is also monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and second crop development conditions for Brazil. The USDA’s updated supply and demand numbers is out May 12^th, while CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil is set for May 15^th. Export sales of 45.4 million bushels were down 26% on the week and 1% larger than average, with Japan and South Korea leading the way, but with a big cancelation by unknown destinations. There were no reported new crop sales.

The wheat complex closed steady to firm, with some help from the lower trade in the dollar during the session. There’s widespread rain in the forecast for the Plains, boosting soil moisture in some very dry areas, north to south. It won’t be enough to break the drought but should help winter wheat conditions improve at least somewhat. The trade’s also monitoring the continued drought in parts of Russia and Ukraine bordering the Black Sea region and the emerging dry conditions in portions of China and Australia. Old crop export sales were a net reduction of -5.3 million bushels, with sales of 7,800 to 75,300 tons more than offset by cancelations of 13,500 to 158,400 tons. New crop sales of 13.7 million bushels were primarily to Mexico and Japan. Egypt’s Ag Ministry says it expects to import 4.5 million tons of wheat in the coming marketing year, which starts July 1^st.