Market News

Soybeans, corn see pressure from development weather

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. 66% of U.S. beans are good to excellent, down 1% on the year, but still good. Crush margins are solid and the trade is waiting for any signs of new crop demand from China. For now, at least officially, China continues to primarily buy beans from Brazil. There have been some new crop U.S. sales to unknown destinations. The USDA and CONAB will put out new supply, demand, and production numbers on the 11^th. Harvest in Argentina is close to wrapping up. While the 2025/26 harvest in Brazil is officially over, estimates continue to roll in, with StoneX putting production at 181.8 million tons, 1% above the previous expectation. Soybean oil futures were down on profit taking, while soybean meal was mixed on bear spreading.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. 67% of U.S. corn is good to excellent, 2% less than last year, with generally favorable development weather. Traders are also monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. StoneX sees Brazil’s total corn crop at 136.8 million tons, a little bit below the last guess, including a second crop of 106 million tons. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday. Margins are solid, but the pace of production is just slightly slower than what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year, which runs through the end of August. SovEcon expects Russia to export 3.6 million tons of corn in 2026/27.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. winter wheat, primarily hard red winter, remains in poor shape with 5% harvested, and 47% of spring wheat is in good to excellent condition, but those issues are largely factored into the market. Additionally, the trade remains reluctant about pricing wheat too much higher and further limiting export demand. While 2025/26 sales were solid, the marketing year was largely based on trade with the usual customers and didn’t feature a whole lot of eye-catching weeks. Higher input costs are reportedly impacting planting in Argentina and Australia, with the trade also monitoring a combination of planting, harvest, and development weather in Canada, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. SovEcon has Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports at 46.3 million tons, up 1.1 million from the prior projection. Egypt’s government says it has procured 4.3 million tons of domestic wheat since the start of harvest, approaching Cairo’s target of 5 million tons.