Market News

Soybeans, corn see strong finish post USDA numbers

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, adding to what would have already been a decent gain for the week. The 2024 U.S. production total was up from 2023, but less than what the USDA was projecting in December. That pulled U.S. ending stocks lower and there were no changes for South American numbers. On a less positive note, quarterly grain stocks were higher, but that was at least partially due to the year-to-year rise in production. Now the market is fully turning its attention to South American development weather, with some reports of stress in Argentina and harvest activity underway in parts of Brazil. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Also, the USDA did raise the demand projection for bean oil, all on export demand, after increasing production while lowering biodiesel use. U.S. export sales last week were a marketing year low at 10.6 million bushels with the Netherlands and China leading the way, but with a substantial cancelation by unknown destinations.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, ensuring a higher weekly finish. 2024 corn production was below 2023 and under what the USDA was estimating for December. Corn ending stocks were down on the month due to lower production, which canceled out cuts for export and feed use, and global adjustments were minor. Quarterly corn stocks were under a year ago, due in part to the decline in production. With this round of numbers out of the way, the focus is back on Argentina and Brazil, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for the 14^th. Some stress is being reported in parts of Argentina. China’s government did lower its export guess to 9 million tons, above the current USDA outlook. Weekly export sales were a marketing year low at 17.5 million tons. The big buyers were Colombia and Japan.

The wheat complex was mixed, but with week-to-week gains in the most active contracts. U.S. wheat planting area was 2% above last year and ending stocks were slightly higher, mostly on an increase in imports. Quarterly stocks were up largely due to the difference in 2024 production versus 2023. USDA did increase exports for Australia and Canada, while lowering the outlooks for Russia and Ukraine. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out February 11^th. The market is continuing to monitor harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, along with winter wheat development conditions in the U.S., Black Sea region, and Europe. U.S. export sales last week were a marketing year low at 4.1 million bushels, with South Korea and the Philippines topping the list.