Market News

Soybeans, corn stay on lower trend

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling. Near-term forecasts for most of the region look mild, but some areas do need rain to ensure the full success of the crop. The USDA’s national condition rating remains above a year ago and while that’s not a 1:1 guarantee for crop size, the trade seems to be dialing in big numbers for 2024. Domestic crush demand remains solid, even as exports are slow due to Brazil’s dominance. Brazil’s vegetable oils group ABIOVE estimates 2024 production at 153.2 million tons, steady with their last guess, with CONAB’s updated outlook set for release Tuesday, August 13^th. China’s General Administration of Customs says July soybean imports were 9.853 million tons. Brazil’s July soybean exports were reported at 11.25 million tons, up 16% on the year. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on product spread adjustments, with bean oil seeing additional support from gains in crude oil during the session. A strike by oilseed industry workers in Argentina over wages could impact movement in the short-term.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn is monitoring late development weather, including rain in the forecast for parts of the upper Midwest. The big question for corn continues to be the acreage numbers, with at least some adjustment expected in this next round of production projections on the 12^th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production was down 42,000 barrels a day from the previous week’s all-time high of 1.067 million, but still 44,000 above a year ago. Ethanol stocks of 23.767 million barrels were 206,000 under the week before, but up 887,000 from last year, while ethanol exports were the highest on record, averaging 210,000 barrels a day. Brazil’s July 2024 corn exports were reported 3.554 million tons, 16% less than July 2023.

The wheat complex was lower on speculative and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. The U.S. spring wheat crop has record yield potential and winter wheat harvest results are generally good. Export demand has improved a little due to global crop weather issues, with weekly U.S. sales numbers out Thursday morning. The USDA could make crop adjustments for several nations due to those weather issues in the next round of supply, demand, and production estimates, including Argentina, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. Still, the department might wait to make significant changes. Egypt issued its largest wheat tender ever, 3.8 million tons, intended to cover imports from October of this year to April of next year.