Market News

Soybeans, corn take profits, watching weather, outside factors

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the drop in crude oil. Contracts are overbought and U.S. planting and emergence remain ahead of average. That’s not to say that there aren’t some areas of concern, but on the whole, for now, that planting pace is a little bearish. Beans are waiting for details on the mid-month trade meeting with China. If ag trade comes up, as expected, soybeans are a likely topic, but at this stage, the question is – old crop or new crop? Brazil continues to dominate global soybean trade. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 12^th, with CONAB’s updated look at Brazil’s crops on the 14^th. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads based on demand expectations. That helped bean oil shrug off Tuesday’s decline in crude oil. Despite rhetoric, it doesn’t look like there’s been much of a change, yet, in shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz, and the ceasefire in the conflict with Iran looks tenuous.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, with some spillover from the lower move in crude oil. Corn planting and emergence are faster than normal, but some delays are likely this week. There are also the continued questions about just how many acres will be planted to corn this year. While export demand is solid, there’s looming competition from Argentina, as their record expected harvest moves forward. Traders are monitoring second crop development weather in Brazil as well. The Renewable Fuels Association says March ethanol exports were 217.8 million gallons, up 4% from February, with Canada, the European Union, and the Philippines leading the way. Exports of distillers dried grains with solubles were 1.03 million tons, up 12% on the month, primarily to Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea. For the first quarter of 2026, ethanol exports are 20% ahead of 2025’s record pace, and DDGS exports are 10% faster than last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, in addition to the firm trade in the dollar for most of Tuesday’s session. There’s precipitation in the forecast for parts of the Plains, potentially providing some relief for the U.S. hard red winter crop. However, that does include snow in some areas and the event could miss some of the drier sections of the region. Still, the expected increase in HRW abandonment might be mostly factored in and traders are wary about pricing U.S. wheat any further above competing exporters. Soft red winter conditions are comparatively good. The trade is also monitoring development in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with planting in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the northern U.S. Plains.