Market News

Soybeans, corn up Friday, still down on the week

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, still ending the week in the red. Forecasts by Friday had generally turned warmer and drier into mid-month for parts of the region, hitting beans during key development phases. The trade’s still expecting a large crop and solid yield, but any significant stress would likely limit the crop’s potential. China bought 202,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, the second day in a row with an announced 2024/25 sale for a running total of 334,000 tons. This might be another sign of Beijing taking advantage of the U.S. edge in beans for fall/winter delivery, even as China also continues to buy from Brazil. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads, with bean oil picking up additional pressure from the drop in crude oil. Crude oil and several other parts of the broader market, including the dollar, fell sharply during the session on concerns about economic strength.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, but not gaining enough to avoid a lower weekly finish. Corn was oversold and due for a bounce, with possible acreage adjustments in the next production report on the 12^th. The USDA will be reviewing survey data and including new information for corn and several other crops from the relevant agencies in this report, with further changes possible in later months as well. USDA is projecting a large carryout, but demand continues to look solid. That carryout does depend on the yield and while crop conditions are higher than most recent years, nationally, those conditions are not always indicative of the crop’s full production potential. Farmer selling continue to be slow in most of the Midwest, which could create storage issues again this year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its corn production guess for Argentina unchanged at 46.5 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with the drop in the dollar, compounding the week-to-week gains for the most active months at the three U.S. pits. Wheat was focused on U.S. and world weather issues likely impacting production. In the Western Hemisphere, the trade is watching potential heat stress in the northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies, along with the cool, dry conditions in Argentina as planting wraps up, while in the Eastern Hemisphere, it’s drought in the Black Sea region of Russia and Ukraine, in addition to rain impacting crop quality in France, Germany, and other areas of Russia. France’s AgriMer says 50% of that nation’s crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged on the week. Export demand for some types of U.S. wheat has improved, even as Russia continues to hold the lowest global price.