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Soybeans, corn up, watching South American weather

Soybeans were higher on speculative and technical buying. Forecasts for parts of Argentina and Brazil generally look warm and dry into mid-month. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange 93% of Argentina’s crop is planted. Most analysts are maintaining big production outlooks, but that could trim yields. The next major rounds of projections, the USDA’s report this Friday and CONAB’s update on the 14th, won’t fully factor in that pattern. U.S. export inspections were below the previous week, but above a year ago, primarily to China and the Netherlands. Early in the second quarter of the marketing year, the pace remains ahead of 2023/24, but that could slow down once Brazil’s new crop hits the market. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was higher on speculative and technical buying. Corn is monitoring weather in South America, with some early reports of stress in parts of Argentina, which could impact production if dry weather persists. For now, though, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 81% of the crop is in normal to excellent condition, with 87% of the crop planted. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be solid. U.S. export inspections did fall below both the week before and last year, but the overall pace remains ahead of what’s needed to meet projections for 2024/25. The leading destinations were Mexico and Colombia.


The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The dollar is down, which could help U.S. wheat be more competitive on the export market, at least theoretically. U.S. export inspections were up on the week, but down on the year, with Mexico and South Korea leading the pack. The trade’s monitoring harvest and quality out of Argentina and Australia, and exports from Ukraine, while waiting for Russia’s wheat export cap and tariff increase to go into effect next month. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 95% of Argentina’s crop is harvested. Some U.S. winter wheat growing areas did get snow ahead of a move to bitterly cold temperatures. Snow is in the forecast for later this week in parts of the southwestern winter wheat region into the Delta and southeast. Still, the big test for wheat is conditions when the crop emerges from dormancy in spring. There’s talk India will need to import wheat to fight high domestic prices and replenish state reserves.

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