Market News
Soybeans, corn, wheat bounce off recent lows
Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Contracts are oversold, but gains were limited by big 2025 crop expectations. While there’s still a chance for August and September weather to trim top end yields, the trade is expecting a large 2025 U.S. soybean crop. Domestic demand for crush is solid thanks to the margins, and the weekly export sales numbers were good. However, the absence of China continues to be notable. The U.S. is competitively priced starting in October, but Beijing continues to focus on supplies from Brazil due to tariff tensions with the U.S. 2024/25 sales of 17.2 million bushels were larger than average with Taiwan and the Netherlands leading the pack, and 2025/26 sales of 20 million bushels were mainly to unknown destinations and Egypt. A big question right now is who’s buying as that unknown destination? China’s General Administration of Customs says July soybean imports were 11.666 million tons, 18.5% more than last year. Brazil’s Trade Ministry says July soybean export to all nations were 12.257 million tons, up 9% on the year, with 9.6 million tons of that to China. Soybean meal futures were higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. The USDA’s attaché for Indonesia has 2024/25 palm oil exports at 22.8 million tons, down from the last guess due to generally slower global demand and increased domestic biodiesel use.
Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is oversold, but wary about rising production projections. There might be some questions about the veracity of those projections and, no matter what, there will always be some kind of doubt about any kind of number from the USDA, but the trade is locking in a substantial 2025 U.S. crop. Weekly new crop sales were strong, and Mexico and Guatemala bought more new crop ahead of the open. Old crop sales of 6.7 million bushels were quite a bit below average, led by Mexico and Colombia but with a big cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were 124.5 million bushels, primarily to unknown destinations, Mexico, and South Korea all buying at least 400,000 tons. The new crop sales announced by the USDA Thursday morning were 106,680 and 105,000 tons, to Mexico and Guatemala, respectively. Corn is also watching second crop harvest activity in Brazil, with CONAB’s updated outlook set for Thursday, August 14th. Brazil’s Trade Ministry says July corn exports were 2.434 million tons, a drop of 31.5% from a year ago.
The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Wheat saw a bounce while getting ready for next week’s supply and demand report. That report, along with an updated look at 2025 U.S. winter wheat production, is out Tuesday, August 12th at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Global demand is up on generally lower prices due to rising world supplies. U.S. sales of 27.1 million bushels were larger than average, headlined by Nigeria and Bangladesh. Past that – Chicago and Kansas City continue to monitor harvest activity in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, while Minneapolis is watching early U.S. harvest activity and rain chances in the Canadian Prairies. Areas of the Canadian Prairies do have scattered near-term rainfall, but it might be too little, too late for part of the crop.
Add Comment