Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat buy back some losses

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. CONAB raised its soybean estimate for Brazil 0.8% on the month to 167.37 million tons, but it’s still below the most recent official USDA guess, with harvest over 60% complete. If realized, that would be up 13.3% from last year.  The Rosario Grain Exchange Argentina cut its crop projection for that nation to 46.5 million tons, which is now also less than this week’s official USDA projection. Unofficially, the USDA’s attaché in Argentina pegs the crop at 49 million tons. The USDA and CONAB will both issue their next updates on April 10^th. Old crop U.S. soybean export sales of 27.6 million bushels were up sharply on the week, primarily to China and Indonesia. Net new crop sales of 1.6 million bushels were to Mexico with a small cancelation by Japan. Soybean meal was higher on oversold signals, while bean oil was down on the decline in crude oil and questions about demand. The USDA and Statistics Canada report the combined 2024 soybean crush was up 3%, with the combined canola crush 8% higher.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. CONAB’s corn total for Brazil is 0.6% up on the month to 122.76 million tons, but below the USDA. Brazil’s second crop, which is more than 80% planted, is seen at 95.516 million tons, 0.6% less than in February, but potentially 5.8% more than a year ago. The first crop is pegged at 24.857 million tons, 8.3% higher than last year. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its corn guess for Argentina 1.5 million tons to 44.5 million, with harvest just over 10% finished. The trade’s also monitoring U.S. weather ahead of planting. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are out March 31^st. Old crop U.S. corn export sales were 38.1 million bushels, rising 6% on the week, but falling 19% from the four-week average, with Mexico and Japan leading the way. There was a significant 2024/25 cancelation by unknown destinations. 500,000 bushels of new crop were sold to Honduras. Grains, oilseeds, and ag commodities in general continue to brace for the full impact of reciprocal tariffs from the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Warm, dry weather is expected to impact crops in the southern U.S. Plains, Black Sea region, and Eastern Europe. There are expectations for at least some top end yield loss, but timely rainfall would be a benefit. The trade is also watching weather ahead of spring wheat planting in many areas, including Canada and the northern U.S. Plains. Old crop U.S. export sales were up on the week and larger than average at 28.8 million bushels, largely to Panama and South Korea, with new crop sales of 3 million bushels, with South Korea and the Philippines topping that list. Old crop U.S. exports are now very close to the USDA’s projection with slightly less than a quarter left in 2024/25. The possibility of Russia agreeing to a U.S. brokered ceasefire with Ukraine continues to be a question mark. France’s Ag Ministry reduced its outlook for 2024/25 soft wheat exports to 9.58 million tons mostly due to slower sales outside of the European Union. India’s government held its wheat production estimate at 111.6 million tons.