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Soybeans, corn, wheat buy back some losses

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. It was an up and down session, with beans eventually finding support from a technical rally in meal and a decline in the dollar. Soybean oil saw another round of buying tied to strength in crude oil and the global vegetable oils market, which is being driven by tighter world supplies. Soybeans are monitoring harvest activity in South America, nearly over in parts of Brazil and ongoing for Argentina, along with U.S. conditions ahead of widespread planting. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates on April 11th will not have a production guess, that will wait until May. With this year’s harvest nearly over, the trade has an eye on Brazil’s next crop, with some private firms anticipating a decline in planted area because of prices and debt issues.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn was due for a bounce after the losses to start April, watching the early U.S. planting pace, with some near-term delays likely. Potential drought impact on second crop corn is an issue in Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for April 11th. Ethanol and export demand are solid, but there are concerns about feed demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol stocks hit a two-year high last week at 26.416 million barrels, an increase of 324,000 on the week and 1.28 million on the year, with production averaging 1.073 million barrels a day, up 19,000 from the previous week and 70,000 from a year ago. The USDA’s attaché for China estimates 2024/25 corn production at 29.6 million tons, compared to 288.842 million for 2023/24 on expectations for better yields and higher planted area.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Wheat found some new interest near the recent lows, with help from that lower move in the dollar, even as Russia and Ukraine dominate exports due to a price advantage. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Near-term conditions look mostly warm and dry in the southern Plains, which could cause some stress to HRW. Excessively wet conditions in some SRW growing areas are also a potential issue. Globally, parts of the Black Sea region are dry, while portions of France are being impacted by heavy rainfall. The USDA’s attaché in China sees 2024/25 wheat production at 138 million tons, compared to 136.59 million for 2023/24, large on an anticipated improvement in yield.

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