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Soybeans, corn, wheat consolidate
Soybeans were mostly modestly lower. It was an up and down day with occasional support from last week’s USDA numbers against profit taking pressure. Beans are also watching development conditions in South America. CONAB did raise its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop slightly, with production now pegged at 166.328 million tons on expectations for a year-to-year improvement in yield. That is just under the USDA’s last guess with harvest getting underway in some areas. China bought 198,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. beans ahead of Tuesday’s open, the same amount purchased Monday. ANEC says Brazil exports 2.005 million tons of soybeans in December, most of that to China. CONAB has 2024/25 soybean exports by Brazil at 105.47 million tons. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA’s member crush for December is out Wednesday, with the average guess at a record 205.498 million bushels, while bean oil stocks are expected to be up on the month, but down on the year.
Corn was mostly modestly lower. Corn continued to digest the recent USDA numbers, while watching forecasts for South America. There has likely been some stress from a recent warm, dry stretch in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil, but the full extent of yield loss won’t be known for a while. CONAB lowered its corn guess for Brazil modestly, with total production now pegged at 119.552 million tons. That was all on a fractional cut to the first crop, with CONAB maintaining its estimate for the second crop, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. That total is above the most recent USDA projection, but below some private firms. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out February 11th, with CONAB’s refreshed outlook for Brazil set for the 13th. ANEC reports Brazil exported 4.266 million tons of corn during December, with Egypt topping the list. CONAB’s 2024/25 corn export guess for Brazil was unchanged at 34 million tons. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.
The wheat complex was mixed. The trade’s watching U.S. crop conditions with a wide range of temperatures across key growing areas. Large parts of the U.S. soft and hard red winter regions have recently received some snow cover, with a chance for more in some areas this weekend along with bitterly cold temperatures. Russia’s wheat exports are slowing ahead of a cap officially going into effect in February, which could help U.S. sales. Still, that depends on several factors, including the relative strength of the dollar and the pace of shipments out of Argentina and Australia. The trade’s also monitoring conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Reports out of Moscow have the deputy ag minister who was at least partially credited with the rise in Russia’s exports being removed from the government, with no announced replacement.
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