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Soybeans, corn, wheat down Friday

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, while still finishing mixed on the week. The trade’s watching planting, expecting good progress, outside of likely delays in some northern growing areas. There’s the possibility of some heat stress, but for now, the moisture is expected to be good and the pattern could be beneficial for early development. Export demand has improved, at least for old crop, and domestic crush margins remain solid. On the export side of things, Brazil’s basis has been up recently, but eased a little to end the week following the rejection of a tax reform bill that would have impacted trade by their Senate. Also, while demand from China and unknown destinations has picked up steam recently, new crop sales continue to be slow. The NOPA’s May member crush numbers are out Monday, with an average guess of 178.352 million bushels, which would be the largest for the month on record. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 96% of Argentina’s soybean crop is harvested. Brazil’s harvest is ongoing in some of the areas hardest hit by the recent flooding, with CONAB’s next projection out July 11th.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling but managed a firm weekly finish in the most active months. Planting is nearly wrapped up in most of the Corn Belt with the USDA’s planted area numbers out on the 28th. Still, the actual planted area won’t really be known until prevent plant numbers are released. Quarterly grain stocks are also out on the last business day of June. The hot weather expected in much of the region through the end of the month could cause some early stress, but that could be mitigated if moisture sticks around. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says just over 40% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested. The trade is also monitoring drought impact in Mexico, with the potential for a more than 9% drop in overall production.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, adding to what was already going to be a down week. The trade is monitoring U.S. winter wheat harvest activity and spring wheat development. Hard red winter harvest results generally look good as activity moves north, while soft red winter numbers have anecdotally been mixed. For spring wheat, parts of the northern Plains could see some delays for the late stages of planting, but soil moisture should be beneficial long-term. Concerns about drought in the Black Sea region are on the back burner. At this stage, the trade wants to see some yield numbers out of Russia and Ukraine. However, some of the crop has been lost and that could be positive for U.S. export demand, evidenced in the USDA’s most recent set of supply and demand numbers, with the next round out July 12th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 46.3% of Argentina’s wheat crop has been planted. India’s government says that it has no plans to change its wheat import tax.

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