Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat down on profit taking

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, but still up on the week for the most active contracts. Forecasts had some near-term rain in parts of the region, but many areas could stay dry into mid-month, which might trim yields. For now, though, the USDA and most private firms are projecting a record yield in 2024. New crop export sales were down on the week at 60.9 million bushels, still mainly to China and unknown destinations. Old crop sales were a net reduction of 8.4 million bushels, not uncommon late in a marketing year. The sales numbers covered the week ending August 29^th and the 2024/25 marketing year started September 1^st, so there are still a couple of reporting days remaining. The trade is also monitoring conditions ahead of widespread planting in South America. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is out Thursday, September 12^th. Brazil’s Trade Ministry says August soybean exports topped 8 million tons, down on the month and the year. Soybean meal and oil were lower on the fundamental implications of a big soybean crop. Additionally, two soybean crush unions in Argentina reached an agreement with ag firms to avoid a strike. The USDA’s attaché in China estimates 2024/25 domestic soybean production at 19.6 million tons, compared to 19.7 million in 2023/24, with imports next marketing year seen at 103 million tons, which would be unchanged from this marketing year. Soybean meal feed use in China is expected to increase due to lower prices.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, still able to finish with a modest weekly gain. Corn continues to monitor late development weather, along with early harvest activity and yield results. Recent private projections have hewed closely to the USDA’s August guess. The USDA’s first national harvest figure of the season is expected to be in Monday’s crop progress and condition report. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out on the Thursday, 12^th. There could also be further adjustments to acreage in the report. Even though the USDA is projecting new crop ending stocks at more than 2 billion bushels, that could get drawn down by solid demand for ethanol and exports. Old crop export sales were a net reduction of 6.8 million bushels, but new crop sales were strong at 71.7 million bushels, primarily to Mexico and unknown destinations. Still, demand might start to slow down a little due to the recent increase in freight costs. There’s been more chatter India will import wheat to bring down domestic prices. Trade data shows Brazil exported just over 6 million tons of corn in August 2024, up from July, but down considerably from August 2023. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Argentina’s 2023/24 corn harvest is complete at 46.5 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the higher dollar, but the most active months were able to see decent gains on the week. Spring wheat yields are reportedly declining, reportedly generally more in-line with results from Canada, and dry conditions in some winter wheat growing areas could limit planted area, for not only hard and soft red winter, but also white winter wheat. Dry weather is also an early concern in parts of Argentina, while conditions in Australia are mixed, but generally favorable. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange did maintain its guess for Argentina’s crop at 18.5 million tons. There are also some questions about winter wheat planted area in parts of Russia and Ukraine due to drought in the Black Sea region, not to mention the ongoing war. A farmers’ group in France says this year’s wheat crop was 25.98 million tons, a big drop on the year with yields falling sharply due to weather. U.S. export sales were down on the week at 12.5 million bushels, with the Leeward and Windward Islands and Mexico topping the list. There was also a small net reduction for 2025/26 following a cancelation by Mexico.