Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat drop to end the week

Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, also ending the week lower. Near-term forecasts continue to look hot and dry in parts of the region, but the extended outlook is questionable. Other key growing areas are expected to see more favorable conditions, with most seasonal rainfall and less worrisome temperatures. Either way, there’s a long way to go until harvest. Any yield loss would tighten the new crop balance sheet and could make up, at least partially, for the slower new crop export demand, with China continuing to source most of their soybeans from Brazil. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly weak, on bull spreading, while soybean oil fell sharply fund liquidation, despite the bullish domestic crush margins.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, pulling contracts to a lower weekly finish. Corn is watching the weather with an uncertain chance of more mild conditions in some areas by mid-August. Still, most of the crop will be past the pollination phase by then and any forecast more than three days out is generally seen as unreliable. Additionally, the big question for corn is acreage, with potential adjustments by USDA starting in the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers out August 12^th. Corn is also monitoring potential stress on developing corn in parts of the Black Sea region, with Russia and Ukraine both seen as export competitors. Argentina’s corn harvest is reportedly nearing the 90% mark, with new crop planting projected to be lower than the previous season, potentially as much as 30%, because of weather and economic issues. France’s AgriMer says 82% of that nation’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition, 1% above the week before. Feed, fuel, and export demand all remain positives for corn.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, with the most active months at the U.S. pits seeing week-to-week losses. Chicago and Kansas City are monitoring the tail end of the U.S. winter wheat harvest. Minneapolis is watching spring wheat development weather, with a chance of stress for spring wheat in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. That’s slightly tempered by the record spring wheat yield estimate from a major crop tour. The USDA’s weekly national crop progress and condition report is out Monday at 4 Eastern/3 Central. Globally, the trade has eyes on conditions in Russia and Ukraine, along with quality issues in France and Germany. France’s AgriMer says 50% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, 2% lower than the prior week, with 41% of the harvest complete. Taiwan reportedly tendered for 105,650 tons of U.S. wheat.