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Soybeans, corn, wheat extend decline
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Near-term development conditions remain favorable in much of the region. While some stress is possible in areas that were mostly dry during spring, the widespread heat should be beneficial in areas that have sufficient soil moisture. Temperatures are expected to moderate in many areas over the next few days, with rainfall likely in large parts of the region. Meal was down on demand questions while bean oil was pressured by tighter biofuels margins. Soybean oil did try to follow the bounce in crude oil but was unable to follow through. The trade is also expecting at least some increase in acreage in the USDA’s planted area report on the 30th. Quarterly grain stocks are also out this upcoming Monday. Reports out of Argentina have their May soybean crush at 3.879 million tons, up from the April total. ANEC estimates Brazil’s June soybean exports at 14.99 million tons, compared to the earlier guess of 14.36 million.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is monitoring development weather, which looks mostly non-threatening into mid-July. Still, if condition ratings decline again next week, there will start to be some rumbling about the crop losing top-end yield potential in parts of the Corn Belt. Private estimates for Brazil’s second crop are rising as harvest advances, which could impact U.S. export demand. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for July 10th, with the USDA’s new supply, demand, and production report on July 11th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production dipped to a four-week low, averaging 1.081 million barrels a day, down 28,000 on the week, but up 38,000 on the year. Stocks were reported at 24.404 million barrels, rising 284,000 from the week before and 981,000 from a year ago, with exports averaging 110,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 53,000 from the prior week, but an increase of 38,000 from last year. ANEC sees June corn exports by Brazil at 828,959 tons, compared to the previous projection of 913,316 tons.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Chicago and Kansas City are expecting a faster winter wheat harvest pace in some areas. Still, portions of the U.S. winter wheat region have seen rain recently and there are disease concerns for both hard and soft red winter. Minneapolis is watching rain chances in the spring wheat regions of the northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies. Global prices were mostly lower ahead of the U.S. session, adding to the generally bearish sentiment around U.S. wheat. 2025/26 export sales were mostly good ahead of the official start to the marketing year, but have trailed off, and the pace of shipments has been slow. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning.
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