Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat extend gains

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, rallying after overnight losses. The USDA’s national crop rating was down slightly on the week but is holding above a year ago. Forecasts for much of the Midwest generally look dry into mid-month, which could trim yields, especially after what was a dry August in some key growing areas. Private estimates this week generally reflect the expectations for a record yield this year, with the USDA’s updated projection out September 12^th. The trade is also monitoring conditions ahead of widespread planting in Brazil, with CONAB’s new outlook for that nation also out a week from this Thursday. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Soybean oil also saw another round of pressure from China’s canola dispute with Canada, along with lower palm oil prices ahead of the U.S. session and the recent decline in crude oil on demand questions. The USDA corrected Tuesday’s announced sale of 132,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans to 131,000 tons. ANEC estimates Brazil’s September soybean exports at 5.63 million tons.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, ending the session just below the day’s highs. Corn is monitoring late development conditions and early harvest activity ahead of next week’s USDA production estimates. Harvest is slowly moving its way north, with generally good anecdotal yields. Most private yield projections are close to the USDA’s August guess. The Renewable Fuels Association says July ethanol exports of 136 million gallons were down 7% from June, with Canada taking the top slot for the 40^th month in a row. That month-to-month decline included dips for the United Kingdom, India, and the European Union. The RFA says DDGS exports of 1.09 million tons were up 16% on the month, mainly to Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union. For the year to date, ethanol exports are 1.1 billion gallons, 38% ahead of 2023, with DDGS exports at 6.97 million tons, 15% faster than last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Thursday. There is talk that India will have to import corn to fight high domestic prices. That’s also been the chatter in wheat for quite some time, but nothing significant has surfaced and it remains to be seen if India would buy from the U.S. or look elsewhere, with U.S. prices now a little bit less competitive on the global market. ANEC estimates Brazil’s September corn exports at 5.98 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying, along with the lower move in the dollar during the session. 70% of the spring wheat crop is harvested with quality issues in some areas, while winter wheat planting is just getting started. That matches the five-year average but could see some delays if parts of the Plains remain dry, which could also limit acreage. Export demand has improved, even as Russia remains in control of the market due to a price advantage. Russia reportedly exported 5 million tons of wheat in August, while Ukraine’s government is said to have capped 2024/25 wheat exports at 16.2 million tons, about 2 million below 2023/24. Weather has impacted crop quality and yields in several key exporters, including France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, and could influence production in Argentina. The USDA’s weekly U.S. export sales numbers are out Friday, delayed by Labor Day. Taiwan’s Flour Millers Association reportedly bought more than 100,000 tons of U.S. milling wheat. The European Union says soft wheat exports since the start of the marketing year July 1^st are 4.38 million tons, compared to 5.66 million this time last year.