Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat fall further

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling. Soybean oil was lower, following global vegetable oils, and China’s slowing economy could impact demand. The USDA says 68% of U.S. soybeans are good to excellent, steady with last week, but with 1% slipping from excellent to good, with 51% blooming and 18% at the pod setting stage, both ahead of the respective five-year averages. Export demand continues to be slow, but crush demand is solid. Export inspections were a marketing year low at less than 170,000 tons, primarily to Mexico and South Korea. The new marketing year for soybeans starts September 1^st. The NOPA says member firms crushed 175.6 million bushels of soybeans during June, a record for the month, but below both May and pre-report expectations. Soybean meal was pressured by the lower moves in beans and bean oil. In Brazil, Safras e Mercado is projecting a 1.9% increase in soybean planting for 2024/25, estimating the crop at 171.54 million tons.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Development conditions generally look favorable, with a wetter, cooler pattern on tap for parts of the region, while some areas continue to see high temperatures during pollination. As of Sunday, 68% of the U.S. corn crop is rated as good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, while 41% is silking and 8% at the dough making stage, both faster than normal. Demand is good, but old and new crop supplies are ample, as reflected in the USDA’s most recent supply and demand update, with the next set of projections out August 12^th. Export inspections were up on the week and the year, mainly to Mexico and Taiwan. AgRural says 74% of Brazil’s second corn crop is harvested, compared to 63% the previous week.

The wheat complex was lower on speculative and technical selling. The USDA last week raised its winter wheat production guess and new crop ending stocks, with spring production expected to be above a year ago. There was also pressure from lower global prices, led by Russia, which continues to hold a big share of the world market because of price. U.S. export inspections were a marketing year high, above last week and last year, with Mexico and Taiwan topping the list. For winter wheat, 71% of the crop is harvested, compared to the usual rate of 62%. For spring wheat, 67% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, 2% higher, with 76% headed, compared to 78% on average. IKAR estimates Russia’s 2024 wheat crop at 83.2 million tons, compared to the previous guess of 82 million.