Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat finish mixed ahead of USDA update

Soybeans were mixed. There’s more rain in the forecast for Argentina, while Brazil’s record harvest continues to move forward. There are concerns about the impact of excessively wet weather in parts of Brazil during harvest on quality. CONAB’s updated outlook at Brazil is set for this Thursday. Safras e Mercado says 33.9% of Brazil’s 2025/26 crop has been marketed, slower than the previous marketing year. China did buy 264,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. beans ahead of the open, but it remains to be seen if that was a part of the trade deal framework reached last year or if it was sparked by last week’s social media comments by President Trump. U.S. soybean export inspections were below last week, but above last year, primarily to China and Egypt. The 2025/26 pace continues to trail 2024/25. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on aggressive product spread trade.

Corn was mostly lower. Corn is monitoring the rain in Argentina, along with first crop harvest and second crop planting in Brazil. Some of the production guesses have been lowered for Argentina and Brazil’s combined corn crop will be smaller than last year, but it looks like South American corn production in total will be large. The USDA’s supply and demand numbers are out Tuesday, with some expecting a cut in domestic feed use because of tight livestock supplies. Corn demand might be solid, but that big U.S. supply will continue to loom over the market. U.S. export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, with Mexico and Japan topping the ledger. Even with a slowdown, the pace this marketing year is still ahead of last marketing ear. APK-Inform lowered its 2025/26 corn export estimate for Ukraine 2 million tons to 23.5 million.

The wheat complex was mixed. The USDA might make minimal changes to U.S. and world wheat numbers in Tuesday’s report, out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Ongoing drought in the Plains could impact U.S. winter wheat development, with the trade also monitoring overwintering conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. APK-Inform now has 2025/26 wheat exports for Ukraine at 14.5 million tons, a drop from the last guess of 16.7 million tons. Stateside, there’s some scattered near-term rain in the forecast for parts of the Plains. The most recent round of negotiations aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine had very little public progress. U.S. export inspections were up from the previous week and a year ago, with the Philippines and Bangladesh leading the way. Statistics Canada says wheat stocks at the end of December 2025 were above December 2024 levels.