Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat have modest midweek gains

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade was reacting to reports China and the U.S. could talk tariffs soon. Recent rhetoric out of Washington D.C. and Beijing has been mixed, with commodities in general waiting for public advancements and details on a number of proposed trade pacts with key partners. The 90-day temporary tariff reduction by the U.S. is set to expire in July. U.S. planting and development conditions continue to look mostly favorable. The trade’s also watching the late harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. CONAB says 99.8% of Brazil’s bean harvest is complete, with the updated estimate out June 12^th, the same day as the USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers. Soybean meal was up on technical buying, while bean oil was mixed, adjusting spreads, supporting old crop and pressuring new crop.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is watching development weather, with more rain expected in some areas into mid-month. The question is – what comes after that? Some outlooks are pointing towards warmer, drier conditions in parts of the region, and while there was a similar forecast about a month ago that never really materialized, it would fall in line with seasonal trends. CONAB says 89.6% of Brazil’s first crop harvest is complete, with the second crop harvest at 0.8%. Ethanol production and exports were both up on the week, but the supply grew. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.105 million barrels per day, an increase of 49,000 on the week and 33,000 on the year, with stocks of 24.44 million barrels, up 159,000 from the prior week and 1.388 million from a year ago, and exports averaging 150,000 barrels per day, an improvement of 84,000 from the week before and 27,000 from last year.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with the lower trade in the dollar during the session. Traders are monitoring weather and the impact on spring wheat development and early winter wheat harvest activity. Globally, parts of China remain dry, with portions of northern Europe could see some much-needed rain. Wheat is also watching conditions in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. The recent escalations in Russia’s war on Ukraine are also a supportive background factor, potentially impacting production and trade. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning, which will include the last full week of wheat’s 2024/25 marketing year. The 2025/26 marketing year for wheat began June 1^st.