Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat post modest gains

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, along with the lower dollar and higher crude oil during the session. The trade’s watching U.S. planting weather, late harvest activity in Brazil, and probable near-term harvest delays in Argentina. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out May 12^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for May 15^th. Beans are also waiting for public progress in tariff talks. There’s some chatter China is willing to come to the table for negotiations, but no official timeline has been released. ANEC sees April soybean exports by Brazil at 14.5 million tons, compared to the prior guess of 13.3 million. Soybean meal and oil were up, following beans. The USDA’s attaché for Egypt projects 2025/26 soybean imports at 4.2 million tons, compared to 4 million during the current marketing year. The post says that over the past five marketing years, the U.S. has supplied nearly 70% of Egypt’s soybeans.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, in addition to the drop in the dollar and gain in crude oil. Forecasts have rain in many key growing areas late this week into early next week. That should boost soil moisture in the west but could be heavy enough to cause flooding in the east, parts of which are already saturated. In South America, rain is delaying harvest activity in Argentina, while recent coverage in Brazil has been mixed, leaving some of the second crop in need of precipitation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week was the lowest since late September 2024, averaging 1.012 million barrels a day, down 9,000 on the week, but up 29,000 on the year. Stocks were reported at 26.814 million barrels, 220,000 lower than the week before, but 734,000 higher than a year ago, while exports averaged 137,000 barrels per day, 37,000 lower than the previous week and 38,000 under this time last year.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The forecasted rain is expected to be beneficial for hard red winter but might damage the soft red winter crop in portions of the Delta and eastern Midwest. The trade is also monitoring spring wheat planting in the U.S. and Canada and planting and development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The recent drop in the dollar and tighter world supplies could boost U.S. exports. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects a big 2025/26 wheat crop for Argentina and says production estimates could rise if the recent monetary policy changes and lower export taxes remain in place. The BAGE currently estimates production at 20.5 million tons.