Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat see a down day

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling, with September closing below $10. Soybeans continue to monitor development conditions, with mild temperatures and scattered rainfall in much of the region. At this point, the trade is dialing a large crop, with any weather issues in some areas during the season expected to be balanced out by better conditions in others. New crop export sales were solid at 36.1 million bushels with China and unknown destinations topping the list. Old crop sales were above average at 12 million bushels, primarily to China and Indonesia, but with a handful of cancelations. With just about a month remaining, the 2023/24 pace continues to trail 2022/23. ANEC projects Brazil’s soybean exports for August at 7.84 million tons, compared to 7.57 million last year, with soybean meal exports of 1.96 million tons, compared to 1.97 million a year ago. Soybean meal was lower on the fundamental implications of a big crop, while soybean oil was mixed, adjusting spreads. An ongoing wage strike in Argentina is disrupting some grain shipments. The USDA’s attaché in Indonesia says 2023/24 palm oil exports are expected to be 26.5 million tons, compared to 46.5 million in 2022/23 due to lower production and slower demand from some prime customers. The office says Indonesia’s palm oil exports are expected to rise to 47 million tons in 2024/25.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn is watching late development weather and the rise in farmer selling in parts of the Midwest ahead of harvest. USDA’s updated yield and acreage numbers are out on the 12^th. Ahead of the report, analysts seem to be anticipating a modest shift in the yield guess and some nominal changes to acreage, with further adjustments likely in September and October. Old crop corn export sales were up sharply from the prior week at 19.1 million bushels, mainly to Mexico and Spain, but with several cancelations, not uncommon at this late stage of the marketing year. New crop sales of 9.8 million bushels were quiet a bit less than the week before, with unknown destinations and Panama leading the way. Old crop sales are very close to the USDA’s guess for the current marketing year, with the new marketing year getting underway September 1^st. ANEC estimates Brazil’s August 2024 corn exports at 6.29 million tons, compared to 9.25 million in August 2023.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, unable to follow through on some early firm activity. The USDA’s expected to raise its U.S. wheat production guess next week and could lower some global estimates. That decline in the global crop size and supply is due to weather issues in several key producers including France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, which has led to some appreciable improvement in export demand for U.S. wheat. Wheat export sales were down on the week, but two months in, the 2024/25 pace is still ahead of 2023/24. Last week’s big buyers were Taiwan and Japan. There was also some 2025/26 U.S. wheat sold to the Philippines and Thailand. The trade is waiting for the results of Egypt’s record large 3.8-million-ton wheat import tender, intended to cover needs between October 2024 and April 2025. Domestically, wheat is watching spring wheat development weather and late winter wheat harvest activity. Strategie Grains has the European Union’s 2024/25 soft wheat crop at 116.5 million tons, a drop of 5% on just the month and the smallest crop in 6 years.