Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat see gains after WASDE update

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. U.S. ending stocks were unchanged on the month and global adjustments were minor. The big feature globally was a 1-million-ton increase for Argentina’s crop to 52 million tons. Imports by China were left at 109 million tons. Soybean meal and oil exports for Argentina were modestly higher. AgRural says 95% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been planted. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is out Thursday, December 12^th. The USDA did raise its soybean oil export guess on solid global demand expectations. That was enough to pull bean oil up from the lows, but not enough to bring it into positive territory, as it was pressured by product spread trade with meal and a higher production estimate. No changes to the balance sheet for soybean meal this month. China’s General Administration of Customs says November soybean imports were 7.154 million tons. ANEC estimates Brazil’s exports for December at 1.57 million tons, compared to the previous guess of 1.24 million.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. U.S. ending stocks were down from November following increases for ethanol and export use, now seen at 5.5 billion and 2.475 billion bushels, respectively. If realized, that would pull 2024/25 ending stocks below 2023/24. Adjustments for U.S. production will wait until January 10^th, when the USDA also releases its preliminary final 2024 production numbers. No production changes this month for Argentina and Brazil either, with generally favorable development weather expected through month’s end. Exports were also left steady for South America and Ukraine, while the production guess for Ukraine was up modestly. China’s imports were cut 2 million tons to 14 million. AgRural says first crop corn planting in Brazil is 95% complete. According to Safras e Mercado, 77.7% of Brazil’s 2024 second corn crop has been sold, ahead of average. ANEC sees December corn exports for Brazil at 3.96 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 3.59 million. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The USDA raised its U.S. export projection, more than offsetting an expected increase in imports, pulling 2024/25 ending stocks to 795 million bushels at the halfway point of the marketing year. Globally, the guess for Russia’s exports was slightly lower at 47 million tons, still coming in above some market chatter. Moscow plans to restrict wheat exports during the back half of the marketing year to limit further domestic price inflation. USDA also reduced production in the European Union and Canada. Exports for the E.U. were trimmed to 29 million tons, while Ukraine’s exports were increased to 16.5 million tons. Imports by China were a half a million tons lower at 11 million, while Brazil’s imports were 200,000 tons higher at 6.2 million. The trade continues to monitor harvest results in Argentina and Australia, along with conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.