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Soybeans, corn, wheat see losses to start week
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. With the U.S. harvest essentially over, beans are monitoring demand and planting and development weather in South America, which generally looks favorable. CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil’s crops are out Thursday. The USDA’s bigger than expected cut to domestic yield did provide some initial support, but that died out not long after the open thanks to the South American weather, higher dollar, and lower crude oil. Even then, the USDA is still projecting a very large crop and ending stocks could be at multi-year highs. There are also demand questions because of potential tariffs on China under the incoming second Trump administration. Soybean meal was down on a lack of follow through buying, while soybean oil was pressured by the lower move in crude oil. Crush margins might be bullish, but that didn’t stop the USDA from lowering its domestic projection in last week’s report.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn’s watching Argentina and Brazil, along with the tail end of this year’s U.S. harvest. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report was delayed until Tuesday by Veterans Day. The USDA’s weekly export inspections numbers will also be out Tuesday. The USDA did lower its yield guess last week, reflecting some of the impact of the late season dryness across much of the Corn Belt, but the department continues to expect the highest average yield on record, with the preliminary 2024 production total out in January. Export demand has improved quite a bit thanks to the recent decline in price, with a spike in sales to Mexico, which is potentially trying to lock in supplies ahead of a renegotiation of the USMCA. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of the marketing year July 1st are 24% faster than the previous marketing year at 5.3 million tons.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to the higher trade in the dollar index during the session. Most U.S. hard and soft red winter growing areas got at least some rain over the past week. That did delay harvest activity in those ports of the region, but the precipitation should boost the rate of emergence and the USDA’s condition rating. Wheat is also watching planting and development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. APK-Inform left its 2024/25 grain production and export estimates for Ukraine steady at 52.5 million and 37.3 million tons, respectively. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports since July 1st are just shy 8 million tons, 60% ahead of last marketing year.
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