Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat see modest gains Thursday

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Beans saw some additional direction from bean oil, which was up on solid global demand expectations. Soybean meal was down on product spread trade and profit taking. Weekly export sales were larger than average at 85 million bushels, with China and unknown destinations topping the list. Additionally, China bought 136,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. beans ahead of the open. Soybeans continue to keep an eye on the generally favorable weather in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 10^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on the 12^th. ANEC sees Brazil’s soybean exports for December at 1.24 million tons, compared to 3.79 million a year ago. Statistics Canada pegs 2024 canola production at 17.845 million tons, down 7% from 2023 on lower yield and harvested area. Canadian soybean production was reported at 7.568 million tons, 8.4% higher thanks to better yield totals.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Export sales were above a week ago at 68.2 million bushels, mainly to Mexico and Japan, and feed and fuel demand are also positives. The Renewable Fuels Association says October ethanol exports of 143.5 million gallons were down 3% from September, with Canada, India, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Colombia leading the way, while DDGS exports were up 10% on the month at 1.11 million tons, primarily to Mexico, Colombia, and Vietnam. 2024 U.S. ethanol exports are 35% ahead of 2023 and DDGS exports are 14% faster than last year. Crop development conditions in Argentina and Brazil generally look favorable. Statistics Canada says 2024 corn production was 15.345 million tons, 0.5% below last year due to a decline in harvested area, which canceled out improved yields. ANEC projects Brazil’s corn exports for December at 3.59 million tons, compared to 6.46 million a year ago.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The trade expects a boost in business from Russia’s impending cap on exports and higher export taxes. Also, Russia’s wheat crop is reportedly in dire condition with the rating well below a year ago. Still, any significant demand improvement is a big question mark for a couple of different reasons, primarily the relative strength of the dollar against other currencies and crops out of Argentina and Australia should be larger than a year ago, putting more wheat from the Southern Hemisphere on the global market. U.S. export sales last week were below average, with Mexico and South Korea taking the top slots. Contracts are oversold and there was also support from the lower trade in the dollar during Thursday’s session. Statistics Canada reports all wheat production for 2024 was 34.958 million tons, a little bit larger than expected and an increase of 6.1% on the year, including a spring wheat crop of 26.076 million tons, up 2.2% from 2023.