Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat see modestly higher finishes

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Crop condition ratings have declined in Argentina and weekend rainfall missed some dry areas. Conversely, harvest conditions in Brazil generally look good and should allow for decent progress. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out March 11^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for the 13^th. Soybean export inspections were down on the week and the year, mainly to China and Mexico. Global demand for U.S. beans has dipped because of Brazil’s price advantage and questions about when, where, and how tariffs will be applied by the U.S. government. ANEC sees Brazil’s soybean exports for February at 9.72 million tons, compared to last week’s guess of 10.1 million. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA says member firms crushed 200.4 million bushels of soybeans in January, down 6.2 million on the month and below expectations, while soybean oil stocks were a little tighter than pre-report estimates.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, pulling March back above $5. Corn is monitoring development weather in Argentina and the second crop planting pace in Brazil. A significant portion of that second crop will be planted after the optimal period due to soybean harvest delays. Approaching the halfway point of the marketing year, overall demand continues to be solid. Export inspections last week were a marketing year high, rising above year ago levels, primarily to Mexico and Japan. Closing in on the halfway point of 2024/25, the pace of export commitments and shipments remains ahead of 2023/24. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are pushed back to Thursday because of Monday’s holiday. ANEC trimmed its projection for Brazil’s February corn exports to 1.28 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Parts of the Midwest and Plains are seeing bitterly cold temperatures with mixed snow cover. That could lead to winterkill, but that won’t be known until spring after the crop emerges and harvest gets underway. Additionally, wheat’s watching development weather in Europe and the Black Sea region. There’s some expectation for an improvement in export demand with Russia’s grain export cap now officially in effect, but for now, demand continues to be inconsistent at best. U.S. export inspections were under the week before and last year, with Mexico and South Korea topping the list. Wheat’s also waiting to see what happens in peace talks aimed at ending the war in the Black Sea region between Russia and the U.S., which currently exclude Ukraine and the European Union.