Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat see solid daily, weekly gains

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, adding to what would have already been a strongly weekly gain. Unknown destinations bought 121,000 tons of U.S. beans ahead of the open, with 55,000 tons for 2024/25 delivery and 66,000 tons for 2025/26. That followed up the sale of 198,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans earlier in the week. The question is now where and when will these soybeans be delivered, especially with the recent talk China bought significant amounts of soybeans from Brazil for delivery during the period the U.S. would normally be very competitive. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out May 12^th and CONAB’s update for Brazil is set for May 15^th. China raised its tariff on U.S. goods to 125%, but the recent drop in the dollar could boost demand from other nations. Soybean meal and oil were up on demand expectations. Bean oil had additional support from a rally in crude oil. Argentina says the soybean harvest has passed the 25% mark.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, cementing the higher week-to-week move. There was follow through tied to the USDA lowering U.S. ending stocks Thursday. That cut to below 1.5 billion bushels was due to a 100 million bushel increase in the USDA’s 2024/25 export estimate. Recent rainfall in some key growing areas should be a long-term positive for the U.S. crop. Still, parts of the region are starting the planting season with a significant soil moisture deficit. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report is out Monday afternoon. Corn is also continuing to monitor tariff negotiations with key U.S. trading partners, along with the harvest in Argentina, reportedly 23% complete and slowed by rain, and second crop development conditions in Brazil.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, ensuring solid weekly gains at the three U.S. pits. The drop in the dollar could be a positive for global demand for U.S. wheat. How much of a positive remains to be seen however, with sales slowing down late in the 2024/25 marketing year. Most forecasts have more warm, dry weather in the southwestern U.S. Plains, potentially lowering the hard red winter yield potential. The trade’s also assessing the recent soft red winter damage and watching spring wheat planting conditions. There are some signs the stalled ceasefire negotiations for Russia’s war in Ukraine could resume soon.