Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat up after tariff pause

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Some tariff increases have been paused for 90-days, but that does not include China, which now has a rate of 125%. Pending further negotiations, tariffs against most nations are now at 10%, aside from previously reported exemptions. Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. beans ahead of the open. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday. Also out Thursday are CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil and the USDA’s monthly supply and demand update. Ahead of the USDA, most analysts expect a slight increase in the domestic supply. Soybean meal and oil were up on the general partial recovery in commodities and the broader market.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. More early planting delays are likely in parts of the Eastern Midwest after the recent flooding. It’s still early in the game, but a significantly wetter period, which would be in-line with some La Nina signals, could have an impact on total 2025 planted area. Corn also continues to monitor tariff negotiations with key trading partners. On average, analysts see the USDA lowering U.S. ending stocks Thursday, but there is a wide range of projections. It remains to be seen how many changes, if any, will be made to CONAB’s second crop corn production guess for Brazil this month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.021 million barrels per day, a 10-week low, down 42,000 on the week and 35,000 on the year, at least partially due to seasonal maintenance. The domestic supply of 27.034 million barrels was up 422,000 from the week before and 826,000 above a year ago, while ethanol exports averaged 174,000 barrels per day, an increase of 112,000 from the prior week and 16,000 from last year.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying, along with some lower trade in the dollar during the session. Wheat’s watching winter crop development conditions, with probable soft red winter damage in the Eastern Midwest and Delta and more dry weather for hard red winter in the southern Plains. Early spring wheat planting activity is ongoing in the northern U.S. Plains and parts of the Canadian prairies. The trade is also keeping an eye on the negotiations, or lack thereof, surrounding a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Ahead of the USDA’s supply and demand update, U.S. and world wheat ending stocks could be up from March. Still, it doesn’t seem like analysts are expecting any big swings in supply this month, with spring wheat planting just getting rolling in parts in the Northern Hemisphere and the winter wheat harvest yet to begin in earnest.