Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat up on oversold signals

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Contracts followed the lead of bean oil, which was up on demand expectations for biofuels. The higher movement in crude oil was also positive for both bean oil and soybeans. U.S. crop development conditions continue to look largely favorable. The USDA’s updated production outlook is set for July 11^th. In general, there continues to be a lot of optimism in commodities about trade and tariff deals, including the newly announced deal with Vietnam, but ag-related details have been sparse. There was talk throughout Wednesday’s session of a trade deal with China being announced Thursday. Soybean meal futures closed higher on an oversold bounce and the bullish tone in beans and bean oil. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil is projecting a 3% increase in planted area for 2025/26, potentially pushing production to 176 million tons, compared to 169.5 million for 2024/25. Exports next marketing year are seen at 114 million tons, compared to 108.3 million this marketing year.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn started lower but bounced back on oversold signals and solid demand. Crop development weather forecasts remain non-threatening for much of the region into mid-month. Ethanol production and stocks were down on the week, up on the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.076 million barrels per day, down 5,000 on the week, but up 12,000 on the year, with stocks of 24.117 million barrels, 287,000 less than the prior week, but 523,000 more than a year ago, while exports averaged 131,000 barrels per day, rising 21,000 from the week before and 26,000 from last year. Corn is also monitoring the harvests in Argentina and Brazil. CONAB’s next outlook for Brazil’s critical second crop is out July 10^th. StoneX now has Brazil’s combined corn crop at 136.1 million tons, including 108.2 million tons of second crop corn, both above the June projections.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying. Wheat is watching the U.S. winter wheat harvest and spring wheat conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies. The trade is also monitoring harvest in parts of Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with planting and/or development conditions in Argentina and Australia. New crop U.S. wheat export sales have been good, but physical shipments have been slow. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Most of Wednesday’s bounce was technical, with contracts oversold and due for a correction, with the addition of some position squaring ahead of the market being closed Friday.