Market News
Soybeans, corn wilt on U.S. harvest, South American rain
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The trade was expecting the USDA to report good harvest progress over the past week in the delayed weekly numbers. The USDA says 67% of U.S. soybeans have been harvested, compared to the five-year average of 51%. CONAB projects a 12.7% increase in Brazil’s soybean crop to 166.054 million tons on higher planted area and yield expectations. Planting is ongoing and expected to pick up steam thanks to a wetter weather pattern. Still, those delays for soybeans in Brazil could impact second crop planting. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. China purchased 131,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans Tuesday morning. The delayed export inspections were down on the week and the year, primarily to China and Egypt. The NOPA says member firms crushed 177.32 million bushels of soybeans in September, a record for the month and quite a bit above the average pre-report guess. Bean oil stocks were smaller than expected at 1.066 billion pounds. ANEC estimates Brazil’s October soybean exports at 4.34 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 4.12 million.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity and planting weather in South America, with CONAB expecting a 3.5% rise in corn production for Brazil, to a combined 119.739 million tons, with higher first and second crop yields expected to cancel out an overall decline in planted area. Stateside, 47% of corn is harvested, compared to 39% on average, with 94% of the crop mature, and 64% rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. There is more rain in the forecast for parts of Brazil and Argentina, which should help speed up planting. U.S. corn export inspections were a marketing year low, under the prior week and last year, with Mexico and Saudi Arabia topping the list. ANEC estimates October corn exports for Brazil at 6.22 million tons, compared to 5.68 million a week ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Thursday.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. There’s much-needed rain in the forecast for dry parts of the Southern U.S. Plains and Black Sea region, likely aiding winter wheat planting. However, early expectations are for generally scattered coverage and more will be needed ahead of dormancy. Even then, the test for wheat isn’t rain before dormancy, it’s rain after dormancy. According to the USDA, 64% of U.S. winter wheat is planted and 35% has emerged, both slower than most years in mid-October. Mexico bought 120,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soft red winter ahead of the open. Wheat export inspections were above a week ago and a year ago, mainly to Mexico and Japan. France’s Farm Ministry estimates 2024 wheat production at 25.43 million tons, compared to last month’s projection of 25.78 million. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says 74.8% of expected winter wheat area has been planted. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out November 8th.
Add Comment