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Soybeans drift lower as corn ekes out a gain

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Soybeans saw a correction, continuing to find resistance under the $15 level. The monthly NOPA crush numbers were lower than expected, but domestic crush margins are bullish and weekly export sales were nearly 3 million tons, mainly to China and unknown destinations. That NOPA member crush total was 179.184 million bushels, well below October and slightly less than November 2021, with soybean oil stocks up on the month and a little more than the pre-report projection, but down on the year. Soybean meal was lower on profit taking, while bean oil was mostly modestly higher with those lower than a year ago NOPA bean oil stocks. Soybeans are also monitoring planting and development conditions in South America. The Rosario Grain Exchange left its 2022/23 soybean estimate for Argentina unchanged at 48 million tons.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Argentina continues to see hot, dry weather, limiting planting, and there are concerns about dry weather in southern Brazil. The Rosario Grain Exchange left its 2022/23 corn crop projection for Argentina unchanged at 56 million tons, but that is above most major estimates. Export sales were up on the week with Guatemala and Mexico leading the way, but the overall pace remains bearish with a lot of competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Mexico bought 101,600 tons of 2022/23 corn Thursday morning, but there are long-term demand concerns because of Mexico’s ban on GMO corn imports, which is scheduled to go into effect in 2024. There are a lot of diplomatic efforts being applied towards avoiding that ban because Mexico is the biggest buyer of U.S. corn. Strategie Grains sees 2023 European Union corn production at 63.7 million tons, up 26% from 2022 on improved weather projections.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. There is a chance of winterkill in the southern Plains next week, with bitterly cold conditions expected in some areas that do not have adequate snow cover, which could extend to soft red winter growing portions of the Midwest. Still, wheat is a notoriously hard to kill crop and any damage won’t be quantified until the crop emerges from dormancy next spring. Export sales were above a week ago, but the U.S. continues to be mostly priced out of the global market, with Russia holding a significant share of the market. Last week’s big U.S. buyers were unknown destinations and South Korea, with a cancellation by China. The complex continues to keep an eye on developments in the Black Sea region that could impact Ukraine’s export pace because of continued attacks on infrastructure by Russia. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2022/23 wheat estimate for Argentina to 11.5 million tons, down 300,000 from the prior guess and well below the 2021/22 total of 23 million tons due to drought and a frost/freeze event late in the season. 64% of Argentina’s wheat crop is harvested. France’s AgriMer raised its wheat export estimate for countries outside of the European Union to 10.3 million tons, but lowered the figure for exports inside the bloc to 6.73 million tons. Strategie Grains projects 2023 E.U. soft wheat production at 128.7 million tons, which would be up 2.5% on the year.

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