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Soybeans drift lower, with corn, wheat mixed
Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. The trade continues to monitor weather in South America, with some disappointing early yield numbers in parts of southern Brazil. Still, those are very early harvested beans, most of the rest of Brazil has seen better weather, and there’s some talk any losses due to crop stress in Argentina could be offset by Brazil’s crop. Longer-term outlooks are generally more favorable for Brazil than much of Argentina. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out February 11th, with CONAB’s new projections for Brazil scheduled for a couple of days after that. ANEC sees Brazil’s January soybean exports at 2.19 million tons, compared to their last guess of 1.71 million, with bean meal exports also expected to be above a year ago. Soybean meal was pressured by profit taking. Soybean oil was mixed, with nearby contracts up and deferred months down, based on demand expectations. The NOPA member crush for January was a monthly record and larger than analysts were anticipating at 206.6 million bushels.
Corn was mixed, mostly steady to modestly higher. Corn’s watching weather in South America, with an eye on conditions ahead of second crop planting in Brazil. That’s the largest of their three crops, the source of most of their exports, and is planted after soybeans are harvested. Recent hot, dry weather is causing at least some stress in parts of Argentina. Overall demand continues to be positive, but there are some questions about ethanol margins impacting production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers were mixed. Production averaged 1.095 million barrels per day, down 7,000 on the week, up 41,000 on the year, with stocks of 25.008 million barrels, the largest since late April 2024, rising 860,000 from the previous week, falling 687,000 from a year ago, and exports averaged 125,000 barrels a day, 30,000 less than the week before, 30,000 more than last year. ANEC pegs Brazil’s January corn exports at 2.98 million tons, up slightly from the prior guess of 2.9 million tons.
The wheat complex was mixed. The dollar was down, but export demand for U.S. wheat is still being limited by relatively high prices. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning, with 2024/25 wheat having hit marketing year lows in each of the previous two weeks, at least partially due to Christmas and New Years. While near-term forecasts for many U.S. winter wheat growing areas are very cold, large portions of the hard and soft red winter regions have sufficient snow cover for insulation. The trade’s also watching the harvest and export paces in Argentina and Australia, and winter wheat development conditions for Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The European Commission says E.U. soft wheat exports since the start of the marketing year July 1st are 11.5 million tons, compared to 17.6 million at this point last marketing year.
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