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Soybeans drift on China demand questions and favorable South American crop outlook
Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. There’s been more talk of China buying U.S. beans this week, but no confirmation from the USDA yet. While that might just mean purchases have fallen short of the 100,000-ton mark required for daily reporting, it’s still deflating for market psychology. Some U.S. vessels are reportedly loading with previously purchased U.S. beans, and at least one boat is already on the way to a Chinese port. The USDA’s next round of U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday. Planting and development weather in South America generally looks favorable and for now, it looks like Argentina and Brazil are both on track for good crops in 2026. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on the generally bearish tone in the soy complex. Ahead of Statistics Canada’s 2025 production update Thursday, analysts see canola production at 21.25 million tons, compared to 20.03 million in 2024.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is monitoring the planting and development weather in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 9th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil set for the 11th. 82% of Argentina’s corn crop is reportedly in good to excellent shape, compared to 36% a year ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged an all-time high of 1.126 million barrels per day, an increase of 13,000 on the week and 53,000 on the year, with stocks of 22.511 million barrels, 543,000 above the previous week, but 492,000 below a year ago, and exports averaging 170,000 barrels per day, rising 48,000 from the week before and 44,000 from last year.
The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. There was pressure from rising global supplies and increasing export competition. The trade’s also watching potential shipping disruptions in the Black Sea as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to drag on, with mixed signals about a potential resolution to the conflict. Wheat continues to monitor harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, along with winter crop development and dormancy conditions in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Statistics Canada will update 2025 grain production Thursday, with the average guess for all wheat at 38.49 million tons, compared to the 2024 total of 36.62 million tons. South Korean mill buyers reportedly picked up 30,300 tons of mixed U.S. milling wheat.
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