Market News

Soybeans drop on lack of China details, CONAB update

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical selling. While ag trade was discussed with China, including soybeans, nothing concrete has been reported from the meeting as of yet. For now, China will likely continue to buy primarily from Brazil due to the price advantage. CONAB raised its production guess for Brazil another 0.5% to 180.13 million tons, which would be 5% larger than last year, with 2025/26 exports seen at 116 million tons, 7.25% above 2025/26. Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearly complete and CONAB’s final word on this record crop will likely be out June 11^th. Old crop soybean export sales were a marketing year low for the second consecutive week at 3.8 million bushels, with Indonesia and China topping the list. New crop sales of 3 million bushels were all to Mexico. Ahead of Thursday’s open, unknown destinations picked up 252,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, with 120,000 tons for 2025/26 and 132,000 tons for 2026/27. The trade is also watching U.S. planting and harvest activity in Argentina. The Rosario Grain Exchange has Argentina’s bean crop at 50 million tons, up 2 million from the prior estimate. Soybean meal and oil futures fell on the bearish tone in the soy complex. NOPA’s numbers for April are out Friday.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Near-term U.S. planting weather looks generally favorable ahead of rain delays this weekend in parts of the region. There are still some questions about how many acres will be planted to corn this year, but activity is moving forward. Old crop corn export sales were lower than average at 27 million bushels, primarily to Mexico and Colombia with a big cancelation by unknown destinations. There were no reported new crop corn sales. CONAB made a 0.5% month-to-month increase in its total corn crop guess for Brazil, now at 140.171 million tons, which would still be 0.7% below a year ago. First and third crops were both up on the month at 28.461 million and 3.255 million tons, respectively, while second crop projection was down 0.6% to 108.455 million tons due to weather issues. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina’s corn crop 1 million tons to 68 million.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Tuesday’s rally made U.S. wheat prices even less competitive on the export market, and while U.S. production will be the lowest in decades, global supplies are ample. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out June 11^th. Parts of the hard red winter region could see some precipitation soon, but it’s too late to help the bulk of the crop, while soft red winter remains in comparatively good shape. Spring wheat planting delays are likely in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. Traders are also watching planting in Argentina and Australia, along with development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange sees production at 18 million to 19 million tons, well below a year ago because of higher production costs. U.S. export sales last week were above average at 4.9 million bushels, mainly to Indonesia and the Philippines, while new crop sales were 8.1 million bushels, with Mexico and the Philippines leading the way.