Market News

Soybeans extend slide, corn and wheat mostly lower

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Planting and emergence are ahead of average nationally despite the recent rain delays. Many market watchers expect good progress this week ahead of another round of precipitation. There’s also the question of whether the corn planting delays will lead to an increase in soybean acreage. Most forecasts have better harvest weather for much of Argentina. The expectations for an improved harvest pace and bigger crop in Argentina pressured soybean meal. Argentina is normally the world’s largest exporter of soybean products. Bean oil was up on product spread trade and a gain in palm oil ahead of the U.S. session. Soybeans are also keeping an eye on the delayed harvest in southern Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers are out June 12th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on June 13th. ANEC projects Brazil’s May soybean exports at 13.74 million tons and bean meal exports at 2.08 million tons, both lower than last week’s guesses.

Corn was mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking. Corn planting and emergence are faster than normal, even with the ongoing weather issues in some areas. That’s not to say there are some areas that aren’t struggling and might have to replant or switch to soybeans, but on the balance, the overall pace is good and much of the Corn Belt should be able to make more progress this week ahead of more rain. The USDA’s first national condition rating of the season is expected to be in next week’s update. Corn is also monitoring early harvest activity and late development weather for the second crop in central and southern Brazil. Brazil’s ANEC sees May corn exports at 520,064 tons, compared to last week’s estimate of 626,302 tons. Argentina’s grain export group says corn exports to China should start in July. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Thursday, and the USDA’s export sales numbers are out Friday, delayed by Memorial Day.

The wheat complex was mostly lower. The USDA’s winter wheat rating was down slightly but well above a year ago and the highest in late May in a few years. Parts of the U.S. Plains remain drier than ideal, while some U.S. soft red winter growing areas are excessively wet. The U.S. hard red winter wheat harvest is underway, with the USDA expected to report the first national progress of the season next week. Rain in the forecast for parts of the southern Plains could cause some early disruptions. Spring wheat planting and emergence are both ahead of the usual paces, with the USDA’s initial 2024 spring wheat condition rating expected to be in the next report. Globally, there’s scattered rain in the forecast for parts of the Black Sea region, primarily for Ukraine, potentially missing adjacent areas of Russia, while portions of western Europe and the United Kingdom remain excessively wet. The trade is waiting to see if India’s government scraps its 40% wheat tariff as rumored to refill state reserves. If that does happen, most of the wheat is expected to come from Russia. India has not imported a significant amount of wheat in several marketing years. The drier pattern in store for Argentina could be an issue for early winter wheat development.

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