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Soybeans fall after higher yield estimate
Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, pulling contracts to a lower weekly finish. The USDA raised production and yield from the August update but did lower ending stocks on export demand expectations. On the supply side, the higher yield and production numbers were a bit of a surprise, while for demand, some analysts had been dialing in an even higher new crop export projection. However, that stocks to usage ratio is considered at least slightly bullish. The next round of supply and demand numbers is out October 9th. Weekly new crop sales were strong at nearly 96.9 million bushels, mainly to China and unknown destinations. There’s still some sorting to be done for old crop, but at least for now, the USDA has 2025/26 sales 18% below 2024/25. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was down sharply on the implications of a larger soybean crop. Bean oil picked up additional pressure from crude oil. West Texas Intermediate crude oil did close sharply lower on profit taking but did hold above $100 per barrel due to supply concerns.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, ensuring a modest week-to-week decline. Yield and production projections were down on the month after the hot, dry finish in some key growing areas, which also helped pull the new crop ending stocks guess lower. Contracts did briefly see a higher move on those numbers but weren’t able to get away from drops in beans, wheat, and crude oil. However, that yield could fall further, demand is strong and the U.S. and world stocks to usage ratios are tight. Harvest is ongoing with the next weekly crop progress and condition update out Monday, September 14th at 4 Eastern/3 Central. Corn is also watching first crop planting in Brazil, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops out on the 15th. Weekly new crop export sales were 75.9 million bushels, primarily to Mexico and Japan. At least unofficially, 2025/26 U.S. corn exports were 25% larger than 2024/25. Ahead of Friday’s open, Mexico bought another 264,000 tons for 2026/27 delivery.
The wheat complex was sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, sending the most active months to a steady to lower weekly finish. Export sales were a marketing year low at 7.1 million bushels partially due to high prices as the trade continues to monitor the Black Sea slowdown. There were more overtures at peace talks between Russia and Ukraine Friday, but that song has been sung several times before and even if the fighting stopped immediately, ceasefires over the past four and a half years have been tenuous at best and the port infrastructure damage will take time to fix. USDA did lower its 2026/27 export expectations for Russia and Ukraine slightly. The USDA left new crop U.S. ending stocks unchanged. Globally, production was up for Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Ukraine.
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