Market News

Soybeans finish mixed as corn, wheat drift downward

Soybeans were mixed, consolidating. The trade continues to watch harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil closely. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil are both slated for April 10^th. Export demand has slowed down, but Brazil’s high basis levels could lead to some new business. How much of that would be from China continues to be a question mark, largely because of pricing and geopolitical issues, which include a lack of clarity about how, when, and even if tariffs will be applied by and against the U.S., some of which are set to go into effect April 2^nd. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn’s keeping an eye on the harvest in Argentina and second crop development in Brazil. Early U.S. planting is underway with scattered near-term rainfall in the forecast for most of the Corn Belt. The bulk of the planting progress has been in the South and the Delta. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are set to be released Monday, March 31^st. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be solid. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Russia and Ukraine have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea and there’s rain in the forecast for parts of that region. That rain likely won’t be enough to fully alleviate crop concerns ahead of harvest, but should at least stabilize conditions, depending on totals and coverage. It’s questionable how much a ceasefire in shipping areas would impact old crop movement and whether or not both sides abide to the ceasefire agreement is another question entirely. U.S. winter wheat conditions in the Plains states remain mixed, with generally warm, dry weather expected in the southwestern U.S. Plains through the end of the month. There are some reports of early spring wheat planting in portions of the northern U.S. Plains. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition reports resume Monday, April 7^th. The European Union’s crop monitoring group projects an 8% increase in average wheat yields for the bloc. SovEcon lowered their outlook for Russia’s 2024/25 wheat exports 1.5 million tons to 40.7 million, while raising the 2025/26 guess 200,000 tons to 39.1 million tons.