Market News

Soybeans gain on new export sales, solid weekly numbers

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Unknown destinations and China both bought U.S. soybeans ahead of the open. Unknown picked up a total of 545,000 tons, with 470,000 tons for 2025/26 delivery, and the remaining 75,000 tons for 2026/27, while China purchased 204,000 tons, all for 2025/26. Weekly U.S. sales were strong at 75.8 million bushels, with China and Egypt leading the way. Still, the 2025/26 pace remains behind 2024/25 because of the lack of demand from China during the first quarter of the marketing year. The USDA also reported sales of 400,000 bushels for 2026/27 delivery, all to Japan. CONAB did trim its Brazil bean outlook slightly, down 0.6% from December at 176.124 million tons, with the crop still expected to be record large and up 2.7% from last year. Early harvest activity is underway and a little bit slower than most years. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA says member firms crushed 225 million bushels of beans during December, just above the average guess and the second largest on record, after October 2025.

Corn was mostly modestly lower on spread trade and profit taking. Argentina seems to be on track for a record crop despite dry weather issues in some southern growing areas, and while CONAB’s guess for Brazil was down on the month and the year, that combined crop still looks big. For Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange sees production at 62 million tons, 1 million more than the last guess. For Brazil, CONAB has total production at 138.867 million tons, slightly less than last month and 1.5% below last year, largely due to acreage changes. The first crop is pegged at 25.895 million tons, with the second crop at 110.461 million tons and the third crop at 2.511 million tons. Thursday morning, unknown destinations bought 500,302 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn and Japan picked up 260,000 tons, also for 2025/26. The eventual origin of that sale to unknown will be watched closely because of the recent chatter about China needing to buy corn because of quality issues with their most recent crop. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed a week-to-week improvement at 44.9 million bushels, but sales were below average, at least partially because U.S. corn is losing its competitive price advantage. The big buyers were Mexico and Japan, and it’s worth noting Algeria bought more U.S. corn last week than it had in the past five marketing years, according to sources. The USDA added 100,000 bushels were sold for 2026/27 delivery, all to Mexico.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar index during the session. Chicago and Kansas City were down – even if there is freeze damage to winter wheat, the extent won’t be known for a while. The U.S. Drought Monitor says 41% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, about steady with last week. Minneapolis saw a correction after recent relatively firm trade. Wheat is watching the overwintering weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. There are some concerns about freeze damage in parts of Russia following a recent spell of bitterly cold conditions. Conversely, state weather forecasters in Ukraine say recent crop weather has been favorable. U.S. export sales were above the prior week, but fell below average, primarily to unknown destinations and the Philippines. While the gap is narrowing, 2025/26 U.S. wheat exports are still ahead of 2024/25. France’s AgriMer left its 2025/26 soft wheat export projection unchanged at 15.1 million tons.