Market News

Soybeans maintain modest gains

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, ending the session under the day’s highs. More rain-related harvest delays are likely over the next few days in some areas. That includes southeastern areas as a tropical storm is expected to make landfall later this week. There was also spillover support from soybean oil, which was up on the strength in palm and crude oils. The trade is also keeping an eye on weather in South America. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 11^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on the 15^th. ABIOVE says soybean crush capacity in Brazil is up 4.5% from 2023. ANEC estimates Brazil’s September soybean exports at 5.82 million tons, slightly lower than last week. China’s government has lowered interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which could lead to increased imports. Soybean meal was lower on profit taking, while bean oil was up on vegetable oil and renewable fuel demand expectations.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling, failing to sustain the higher start to the session. Corn continues to watch harvest activity and the delays in some key growing areas, which could also impact crop quality. That recent rainfall has lessened some of the river movement issues in the Midwest. Planting weather continues to be mixed in Argentina and Brazil. 26% of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, but there are concerns about acreage due to dry weather in some areas. ANEC sees Brazil’s September corn exports at 6.68 million tons, compared to 6.63 million the previous week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was down modestly on profit taking and technical selling, unable to follow through on the early gains. Rain has delayed winter wheat planting, but the precipitation is mostly welcome ahead of dormancy, while the spring wheat harvest should wrap up soon. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary is out on the 30^th, along with the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Globally, the trade’s also watching dry weather in parts of the Black Sea region and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, talk of more abandonment in Argentina, and development conditions in Australia. While export demand has improved, the trade’s wary about pricing wheat above demand. A strike by grain workers in Canada has halted work at five grain terminals, which could drive some business to the U.S. China’s government says price minimum wheat purchases for 2025 and 2026 will be 37 million tons.