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Soybeans manage firm Friday finish as corn closes weak

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying but ended the week with modest losses on harvest pressure and the relative strength in the dollar. Export demand is solid, with Spain and China buying more U.S. soybeans Friday morning, 198,000 tons and 126,000 tons, respectively, both for delivery this marketing year. Interior movement continues to be a problem in the Midwest because of low river levels on the Mississippi, but some exporters have been able to shift to the Pacific Northwestern ports. The U.S. harvest is ongoing, expected to be around 90% in the next USDA update. Crush margins are bullish and there was also spillover from a higher move in bean meal, which helped beans shrug off the lower move in soybean oil. Bean oil was pressured by losses in palm and crude oils. China says it will auction 500,000 tons of soybeans from state reserves November 11th.

Corn was weak to fractionally lower, cementing the lower weekly finish. The trade expects solid near-term harvest progress with generally dry weather in the forecast for many areas. The USDA’s weekly crop progress report is out Monday afternoon and the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is scheduled for November 9th. Domestic demand is good, but exports are slow with U.S. prices at a premium to other origins, especially Brazil and Ukraine. Corn continues to monitor planting and development conditions in South America, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting corn conditions have improved thanks to recent rainfall. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy says 70% of summer grains have been harvested, but just 20% of the corn crop, with a running total of 4.5 million tons. The European Commission lowered its corn production guess for the bloc to 54.9 million tons, the smallest since 2007, and projects imports at 22 million tons, which would be the most since 2018.

The wheat complex was mostly lower with a higher move in the dollar, adding to the weekly losses. Demand for U.S. wheat remains slow, partially due to that relative strength in the dollar, even as U.S. and global supplies are at their tightest level in years. Wheat is also watching developments in the Black Sea region. Russia continues to push for concessions in negotiations to extend Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor, while continuing to attack Ukraine and delay inspections of Ukrainian vessels to slow down exports. Ukraine’s exports through that critical waterway are close to pre-war levels, while Russia’s exports have dipped due to sanctions and traditional buyers switching to other sources. Russia’s Ag Ministry says that nation has harvested 104.6 million tons of wheat. The complex continues to monitor conditions in Argentina and Australia.

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