Market News

Soybeans manage modestly higher close on optimism about China trade talks

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, pulling contracts to a firm week-to-week finish. Contracts were down early but rallied on optimism about the expected U.S./China trade meeting next month. Brazil’s record harvest is almost over and Argentina’s crop rating improved over the past week, now at 48% good to excellent as harvest gets underway. Heavy rainfall in parts of Argentina is leading to some concerns about quality issues for early planted crops. ABIOVE sees Brazil’s 2026 exports at a record 113.6 million tons but expects a dop in returns because of lower global prices. Soybean meal futures closed mixed, adjusting spreads. Soybean oil was down sharply on the drop in crude oil, which fell on the temporary re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The situation in Iran and the Middle East remains volatile.

Corn was mixed, mostly firm, ending the week with modest gains. Corn started the session weak on the drop in crude oil, but found some support, while continuing to watch the U.S. planting pace. There was more rain in the near-term forecast Friday, delaying activity, but that should be beneficial over the long-term. That’s not to downplay the potential for strong storms in parts of the Midwest, which could cause some damage or lead to replanting. Globally, corn is monitoring second crop development conditions in Brazil and harvest activity in Argentina. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out May 10^th and CONAB’s next round of projections for Brazil is set for May 14^th. Those USDA numbers will include the first official look at the 2026/27 marketing year.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City lower Friday on profit taking, while Minneapolis was up, watching spring planting. For the week, the three U.S. pits saw solid gains, largely driven by concerns about the weather in the U.S. Plains. Large parts of the central and southern Plains remain locked in some form of drought with minimal relief in sight and some areas were expected to see a weekend freeze, both of which could cause further stress or damage to the U.S. hard red winter crop. In contrast, the soft red winter crop is in relatively good condition, but some areas could get too wet. The USDA will update the winter wheat crop condition rating and the spring wheat planting pace Monday, in the weekly crop progress and condition numbers. Global supplies are ample and U.S. prices are at a premium to some competing exporters, but overall, prices have held up fairly well. France’s AgriMer says 84% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to very good condition, unchanged on the week. Traders are also monitoring conditions in Russia and Ukraine, along with conditions ahead of widespread planting in Argentina, Australia, and Canada.