Market News

Soybeans manage modestly higher finish

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, with most months near the high end of the day’s range. Near-term forecasts are warmer, and drier for parts of the region, potentially causing stress. A major crop tour has shown some variability in pod counts, but at this stage, the trade is still anticipating record or near-record large yield and production numbers this year. Ahead of the open, China bought 132,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans and unknown destinations picked up 121,000 tons. That’s the third day in a row with an announced sale of new crop U.S. soybeans for a running total of 1,066,492 tons. This upswing in export demand for U.S. soybeans follows the decline in price. While the improved demand is impressive, China is still also buying from Brazil. ANEC estimates August soybean exports by Brazil at 8.16 million tons, compared to last week’s guess of 8.18 million. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Soybean meal and oil were both up modestly, following soybeans.

Corn was mixed, mostly weak, adjusting spreads. The trade is watching late development conditions, which look favorable in many areas, with a private crop tour projecting big yields in some key states. However, some areas are seeing yields below the USDA’s most recent projections, but that could be offset by gains in other areas. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out September 12^th and could include another round of acreage adjustments. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.098 million barrels a day, up 26,000 on the week and 50,000 on the year, with stocks of 23.574 million barrels, an increase of 220,000 from the previous week and 784,000 above last year. Ethanol exports averaged 82,000 barrels a day, 11,000 more than the prior week, but 12,000 less than a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees corn planted area in Argentina declining 17% in 2024/25 due to pest and weather concerns. ANEC estimates Brazil’s corn exports for August at 7 million tons, compared to 6.68 million the week before.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat saw seeing pressure from another decline in global wheat prices, specifically futures in France and cash prices in Russia, along with a larger crop guess in China. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada left 2024/25 wheat acreage numbers unchanged while lowering production, yield, export, and ending stocks expectations. The trade is also waiting to see if a Canadian rail strike can be averted at the 11^th hour. SovEcon raised its guess for Russia’s wheat crop to 83.3 million tons, 400,000 more than the prior projection. India’s prices are up and there’s more talk they’ll need to import wheat, but it remains to be seen how much of that, if any, is sourced from the U.S. That’s largely due to India’s trade relationship with Russia. Still, demand for U.S. wheat has improved due to lower prices, in addition to yield and quality issues in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA’s attaché in Kazakhstan estimates 2024/25 wheat production at 15.8 million tons, compared to 12.111 million in 2023/24 thanks to improved weather. New crop exports are seen at 10.5 million tons, compared to the old crop projection of 8.5 million. Kazakhstan’s new marketing year for wheat begins September 1^st.